Loading ...Likely Confirmation The US Dollar Has Peaked
This morning’s early rise is likely to be the end of the US dollar’s strength. The chart was very overbought and parabolic at it’s recent high two weeks ago. I was waiting for this recent pullback to run it’s course and follow up with a rally back up that would fail to make new highs. The final piece that confirms to me that the dollar is unlikely to make new highs was revealed on Saturday when my weekly copy of “Barron’s” arrived showing a cover story about the US dollar’s “powerful” strength. It reminded me of that fateful “Business Week” cover declaring the “death of equities” right at the bear market bottom in the early eighties. What should prove conclusively that the dollar has peaked, would be it not making a new high and this next drop, to break the 50 day mvg. avg. below 109. The top and drop may or may not be fast. It could be a rolling over, with fits and starts, or a sharp drop. Either way, the huge rally of the last 16 months or so, is over.
Hope you are right CM
But that means This Thing will turn around
Doesn’t look too promising
IMO PMs need to shake off their attachment to the Dollar Index
https://schrts.co/gdYKggJW
No. Its not even close.
Agreed – the meltdown in Europe is going to keep pushing money to the USD.
You get a margin call they want USD right?
So we had a comment expressing reasonable skepticism, a quip, and a couple of narratives about possible fundamentals. My analysis was based on the chart and sentiment, nothing of substance to refute it. We shall see in the coming days and weeks if the price action confirms or not.
“My analysis was based on the chart and sentiment, nothing of substance to refute it.”
What chart? What sentiment? You posted nothing.
You always allude to “your charts” but I’ve yet to see you post one that ALSO lays out HOW you analyze these charts to reach your conclusions.
I use different tools than everyone else (not talking EW here either although I value that too) so my reasoning and interpretation would mean little to most. But I will tell you right now that we are probably SEVERAL YEARS from a final dollar top. AT LEAST 10-15 months. (I do expect several corrections, one as early as Q1 of 23) Of course, nobody reading my chart calls for the first time would pay a dime for that guidance. But I’ve been posting market views/chart reads regularly since the PM top in late 2020. So my “quip” is grounded in a rather solid history of being right far more than wrong. Can you say the same thing? You’ve been calling “bottoms” for this sector all year, and yet you describe yourself as NOT being a short term trader or swing trader but an investor which means you are implicitly making LT bottom calls, not traders’ entries? Or do I have that wrong now?
Learn how to read. The chart means just that. The dollar chart. I don’t create the charts I read the ones that everyone else reads. The sentiment was the “cover of Barron’s”. I explained my analysis in explicit detail and you come back with a comment of”not even close”. Stop your quips and write your own posts. I pretty much remember you makig the same childish complaints on some of my previous posts where I give very specific reasons for my calls. You seem to be the only one who doesn’t comprehend what I write. You can disagree with me but stop with the incessant whinning.