The Next Three Years
We are all familiar with the saying that “while history doesn’t necessarily repeat, but it often rhymes”. When considering that, combined with a number of commentators and gold analysts, who point out that gold usually lags between six months and a year between when inflation accelerates and gold begins to reflect it. If we use the ten year period of 2002 to 2011(which wasn’t necessarily a high inflation decade compared to others) gold had a huge run with the largest percentage gains coming especially in the last three years. Those last three years resulted in almost a triple in the price of gold. Silver in those last three years, rose between 6-7 times. When 2022 ends, we will be entering the last three years of a ten year period where gold began this bull period starting in January of 2016. Another important comparison is that in the seventh year of that run, 2008, gold and silver had significant corrections, before beginning the final, explosive, 3 year leg higher. Being the seventh year of this bull run, 2022 has also been a significant correction year for gold and silver prices. Will it rhyme with that last ten year bull run from 2002 to 2011, and produce the same large gains in the final three years, OR will the gains be much greater, given the highest inflation in over 40 years? What do you think?