Loading ...Silver’s sideways grind
When a sideways grind becomes evident, it usually means an EW triangle is forming, Triangles appear only in 4th waves of an impulse and B waves of a correction. I believe our current situation is a B wave of an upward correction. As such, expect more weakness down to the $21-23 area prior to wave C taking prices to $40+. After wave C, you’ll want to stand aside for a few years as the bear market from the 2011 top is completed. That’s my best guess at this time, subject to change.
This lines up with my thinking of having to wait until 2023 to get a breakout past $30, although I was not anticipating a test of the lower trendline as you are. It’s without a doubt within the realm of possibility given the volatile nature of silver.
I don’t think the small cap silver miners would be so weak if a breakout past $30 was imminent. This lends some credence to your scenario.
All that being said, I am holding out hope that silver can at least test $28-30 in the next month or two and possibly break above $28 for good
I use EW to communicate what I’m seeing off my own non EW tools. But not to analyze.
Nevertheless, your groundwork for what triangles mean is accurate.
They just don’t align with what I’m reading off my own work.
Which is that silver has topped, or is about to. Good chance of the former.
I don’t see $40 anytime soon. Nor $30.
I’m hedging a bit, because GDX still has a bit more upside before it too finds a major top.
I haven’t seen good EW counts lately to point to in alignment with my own take.
If I do, I’ll post ’em.
Looking more closely at your chart timeframe, I’ll certainly be prepared to revisit my bearish thesis as we approach the lower trendline. e waves are not supposed to tag it, but come up well short of there.
Yes, my expectations are the same, weakness to the $23 to $24 region before we see a reversal to the upside. Also, I see Bob as gold’s little brother, wherever gold goes little Bobby will eventually follow. For silver to get anywhere close to $40, gold will have to break out to a new all time high. Is that likely? Looking at the long term charts, I can make an EW case for a new ATH, and significant tops in gold are usually of the blow-off type. Gold at $2500? We shall see…
In the very near term, I would want to see gold and silver hold above their Ichimoku cloud support on the daily chart.
This comes in at approximately $1930 for gold and $24.70 for silver (which not so coincidentally is where silver spot price is sitting this morning).
Great points, Sir Nautilus, Sir PD and Sir TraderScott.
Silver has just dipped to new intraday low of $24.42, while gold bounced from $1937.26.
A rise in the Gold/Silver ratio, plus DXY staying above 100, looks like a risk-off event is coming.
A 409 point intraday reversal in Nasdaq is not a small event either. The intraday highs of April 12th/13th were tested and bested, but they served as overhead resistance. It seems more big money is bailing out on tech.
As far as the resource stocks are concerned, the small caps/juniors are being “sold” only to trigger stop losses. May be big names like AEM too.
AEM going from 67.14 to a low of 61.51 today is not going to help the PM sector, in the short term at least.
I am happy to have scalped my first profits in AEM yesterday, chump change but profits nonetheless.
04/20/2022 14:49:07 Sold 27 AEM @ 64.7006 1,746.91 0.00 0.01
GL