Goldtent TA Paradise

Seabridge

1. ISarmina says:

   April 14, 2022 - 2:46 pm at 2:46 pm

   Sir GL, I used to own this stock. I owned a bunch of other PM stocks as well. A couple of months ago I felt I needed to pare back the number of stocks. One simple minded criteria, among others, was the P/E ratio which at 1409 was way to risky for MY portfolio. The weekly chart just completed a falling wedge with a strong BO. It looks strong from a technical view. IF you have giant profits, sell. If not, I would wait to see if it gets to the top of the wedge at $22.86 and how the price interacts with that “top”, then decide. Good luck, GL.

2. Gold Learner says:

   April 14, 2022 - 3:34 pm at 3:34 pm

   Much appreciate your reply Sir ISarmina!

   I definitely do not have giant profits, LOL, as I just went into the green.
   It was around the time that I first bought SA, that I came across “Gold Ventures” … https://twitter.com/TheLastDegree

   From him I learned to stay away from the “majors” and “mid-tiers”.

   Even though SA never went below 14.8 or so, and my earliest buy was 19.91, what I observed was that shares like SA, give back their gains much faster, and then claw them back at a much slower pace. This was true for most of 2021.

   But, if the tide has really turned now, then, majors are supposed to (a) rise first (before the juniors) and (b) rise more than the juniors.

   This is what I recently learned, and Sir Silverboom also mentioned the same about AUY and SAND in his reply to my post yesterday : https://goldtadise.com/?p=537608

   Somehow, I don’t regret having sold SAND in the high 7s and in the high 6s, even though it is above 9 today.
   My game has been to accumulate bigger numbers of shares (penny stocks) in the quality juniors, and many are looking promising in the past 4-5 months, where they are no longer going down below my last entry prices.

   Given that I have a tiny 341 shares in SA, total cost invested USD 6791, I’m inclined to give it some time. Thanks for the 22.86 target marker.

   This PM bull market is still young!

   Cheers,
   GL

3. silverboom says:

   April 14, 2022 - 5:36 pm at 5:36 pm

   Not sure why you would buy Seabridge in November 2020. I wish I hadn’t bought any precious metal stock in the least 18 months until February 2022 hit. But like you, I did, sold for a loss trying to conserve some capital, and have sat tight with no PF to speak of until towards the end of Feb.

   As I recall, the gang you are following on Twitter only recently indicated it is time to get on board. I got a question today from someone asking me if it’s too late to participate in this impulse move. You have to be kidding. Gold hasn’t even breached $2,000 and silver is a far cry from taking a charge at $30. As Rambus just posted, most of this move is in the beginning phase, with hardly any backtests as of yet. In other words, we are just getting going.

   Seabridge has made a lot of people a lot of money over the years, but the company has yet to bring anything to market. For me (and I suspect many others) it’s an old, worn out story. When I look at companies like AUY, BTG, SSRM, AG – Seabridge with all of its promise fades into the background.

   Kamikaze stocks like you are talking about (Rambus’ term, not mine) are lotsa fun when the fireworks explode. But they are no fun at all when all the “let’s get rich” crowd bails out. It is playing with fire, so nimbleness is mandatory. Check Rambus – he is slow to buy, quick to sell. Conserves capital as much as he can by avoiding losses. Had you sold Seabridge say in January 2021 you could have made a ton of money in the general markets. Or energy. I, too, have sat on losing positions so long they grew mold on them – and learned my lesson. Best wisdom you can get is learning from others mistakes. Second best is learning those lessons through personal experience.

   Graddhy, Patrick and Northstar have served up public charts that are easy to read and easy to follow, if you have patience. In the face of their enthusiasm you also find caution. Graddhy in particular has flagged some superb juniors in gold, silver, and uranium. Those positions are starting to pay off. But when the inevitable correction comes those juniors will get hammered the most – hence the need for nimbleness as demonstrated by Rambus himself.

   The bitter taste of lost money and lost opportunities lingers for a long time. Tying up funds in a lengthy losing position suggests you need to include some kind of a time frame when you buy and decide to “hold.” Know when you buy when you will sell. Hard to do as it makes you really think about why you are buying – what are your exceptions and goals for the purchase? Do you write them down? Do you have a methodology you follow – such as selling half at a double, or a third at a 25% gain. Whatever it is, write it down and stick with it. Emotions are the death knell in investing – writing down specific goals helps reduce the emotion in the heat of the moment.

   I sold some UNG calls recently for a quick double of my money. Nat gas is at $7.32. I expect to see it print $20 by this time next year. But my calls were very short term and my rule sell half at 100% gain and ride the rest. To me, it looked like nat gas is getting stretched well into the overbought territory, so I sold it all, knowing full well that there will be some kind of a correction or backtest soon, which is when I will rebuy for the next leg up. Just an example.

   The other tough lesson to learn is the dangers of FOMO. One can do some really stupid things when operating under the Fear Of Missing Out.

   Hope is not a strategy and emotions will kill you in this business. I know – I’ve been killed so many times my middle name is “cat.” Hopefully, this time around I won’t give in to emotion, and will ramp up another small fortune. Best to you in your attempt to do so as well.

4. Gold Learner says:

   April 14, 2022 - 6:13 pm at 6:13 pm

   Many thanks for your diligent and well thought out post, Sir Silverboom.

   I’ll bookmark it and read it over and over again.
   It is posts like these which have helped me learn a lot from this forum.

   You are a great human being to share so much with a stranger like me. That, in itself, has made you a winner in my book. God Bless you!

   I still hold my entire BTG position. BTG is a rare stock in which I cost averaged up, something I do very very rarely. My average cost is 5.1497, so close to break even there.

   I booked 88% on AG last year, in multiple sells, after having booked only 13% on AG in 2020.

   Today, after pondering over my own post, on SA, I sold less than 10% of my SA holdings for my first profit in SA, two minutes before the end of the trading day.

   04/14/2022 15:57:57 Sold 26 SA @ 21.5 559.00

   Cheers,
   GL

   • silverboom says:

     April 14, 2022 - 7:11 pm at 7:11 pm

     Note in paragraph 6 the word “exceptions” – that should read “expectations.”

     If I followed my own advice earlier in my investing “career” I would be rich and living an entirely different life. But the life I have is precious as gold, and the money I make in this bull move allows some luxury activities that would otherwise be impossible. Like visiting friends in Ridgway, Colorado. And buying a golf cart. Little things that are big things in this stage of our life.

     May the investing gods smile on you in your investing endeavors.

     • Gold Learner says:

       April 14, 2022 - 8:58 pm at 8:58 pm

       Yes, Sir Silverboom, I read it as expectations.

       Paragraph 6 is THE KEY paragraph in your reply.

       Timing the sell(s), to reward yourself of your hard work, and not be greedy, is the biggest challenge.

       As regards the “investing career”, I am in year 15 of mine.
       The dreams, that seemed shattered after the 2016 spike, are now to be “realized”, pun intended, in bigger sizes.
       Beating inflation, by a 5X-10X multiple, is my humble goal.

       And one more point, regarding “nimbleness”. The way I’m playing it is with at most 3% -3.5% of the total portfolio (cost) for any junior, even the most lucrative “100-bagger” one. And for the record, I do believe such gains can happen.

       It just takes one 33-bagger to recover my entire cost basis then.

       Cheers,
       GL

5. Fullgoldcrown says:

   April 14, 2022 - 8:12 pm at 8:12 pm

   Love it Guys

   What the tent is ALL about

   🙂