Loading ...A feeble attempt at connecting the dots: updates from Tom McClellan and Northstar
While I bank tiny profits, mostly on long-term holdings, and rotate to juniors that are both undervalued and promising … I always attempt to read more and more individuals, especially those whose track record has really helped me learn.
May I present some posts from the great Tom McClellan, and, also, another great, our old Tenter, Sir Northstar.
http://www.321gold.com/editorials/mcclellan/mcclellan041222.html
“But in those instances when the TYX goes slightly off script, it usually works extra hard to get back on the program afterward. Zooming in this way allows us to see that the gold price top in August 2020 equates to a top for bond yields due around April 21. This model does not tell us at what level of yields this prospective blowoff will finally stop; it is much better at the timing than the magnitudes of the movements.”
We are getting close to that moment of truth on the US 10-year yield #gold #silver #crypto #uranium #commodities #inflation #commoditywars #currencywars #fintwit pic.twitter.com/ki7tYDOTt8
— Northstar (@NorthstarCharts) April 5, 2022
So will gold skyrocket in the last week of April, approximately?
Cheers,
GL
It will take many, many rate hikes to slow the inflation in my books. Oil capex is table scraps, OPEC tapped out on adding more, ESG sucks, steel for pipelines backlogged, China ports closed due to covid, grains hoarded by China and Ukraine was no help either. People are starting to hoard and buy more adding to the fire. They do not look at bond charts,they see inflation at every corner. So unlike the 70’s inflation of the oil embargo we now have similar plus multitudes of other events added on top on the pile which is 10 times worse and shall be more difficult to reign in with an interest rate hikes of 1 %. Forgot to add war to crime scene.
Agree with each and every of your points, Sir HR! We are in uncharted waters.
The ^TNX chart is showing a lot of strength, a series of higher highs and higher lows.
A very brief period of sideways to down consolidation in the yields may happen as/after it nears the 3% round number, going down to may be 2.3% or so at the most, accompanied by a stronger crash in the broader markets.
Even if yields do not correct, PMs will benefit. What I’m trying to figure out is, what will give PMs the long-awaited vertical move, as the charts are foretelling. That such moves fizzle out quickly, or not, is a separate discussion, as to whether it will happen this time or not.
Oil will give a great entry, IMHO, before it takes out the all time highs of 147.
Agree fully that this inflation magnitude/strength is AT LEAST TWO TO THREE TIMES that of the 70s.
Cheers,
GL
May I make two points. As far as oil going to it’s old highs, I don’t see it. Look at the chart. It topped around 130 and has been making lower highs. The fundamentals and sentiment got as bullish as they possibly could with the war and the sanctions. The economies of the world are rolling over(less demand for oil). Even when China’s lockdown ends they are getting all they need or want from Russia. Next year when most economies are in slowdowns if not outright recessions the world will be awash in oil. As far as your point about gold going vertical and past rallies fizziling out, it is either the same as in the past, if the bankers are still able to use paper shorts to manipulate the price. However, if that 50 year game is about to end(I believe it will) than vertical it is and we won’t be coming back down, ever.
If you are booking tiny profits, it’s because your money is in the wrong vehicles. Plenty of money made since March 1 all over the place…have you looked at the chart of SAND for instance?? Or UNG for another instance? Or AUY – which has risen from $4 a share Feb 1 to touching $6 in today’s trading. That’s a 50% gain. Not tiny profits in my book…
Great points, Sir Silverboom.
I meant tiny as in selling small/partial positions, and holding on to many juniors who are yet to perform.
I have *realized* 56.01% profits year to date, but the absolute amount is less than similar year-to-date realized profits amount from 1/1/2021 till 4/11/2021.
Among examples of recent wins (unrealized gains), I have
TELL : 30.61% since 3/23/2022
SZSMF: 64.41% since 1/5/2022
SNWGF: 128.83% since 12/3/2021
SMDRF: 42.21% since 1/27/2022
MMRGF: 54.58% since 9/17/2021
Heartiest congratulations to you for your UNG win! I missed that one!
The PM juniors market is still in the early stages of a magnificent bull market, hopefully with mindblowing gains for us in the next two quarters!
Cheers,
GL