Loading ...Forty years in the Desert
I kind of feel like we are all Moses finally seeing the exit from the desert. The gold miners relative to gold have been in a bear market since I was in my twenties. Relative to gold they bottomed in 2015. I think I see water. LOL
It’s just a mirage, keep walking, I am sure there is an oasis just over the next sand dune!
If it hasn’t been made clear since 2016, this “bull market” is absolutely nothing like the nicely trending bull we had between 2000-2012.
I think we are going to get more sideways action, more so in silver and silver miners through the rest of this year. I am not expecting silver miners to take out their 2020 highs until the first half of 2023.
It looks like the gold miners could be spiking higher shortly, but I think they will correct all the way back down to current levels over the course of this year.
Basically, what this bull market in silver and the miners is going to amount to is 7 year consolidation after bottoming in 2016, followed by a 2 year vertical move that I expect will be made apparent in 2023. There won’t be any smoothly trending bull. This bull has been basically impossible to trade, and I expect that to continue to be true all the way up until it tops. Virtually no one is going to be able to catch this from trough to peak. The charts for the silver juniors are just ugly and they will continue to be ugly and trendless right until the very end. Moving averages and technical indicators have been and will continue to be worthless.
You got to watch institutional activity at the close. MOC orders tell you volumes. Pun intended. Institutions give their MOC orders to market makers within three hours of the close and get the closing price without disturbing price. For example watch GDXJ volume in the last trading seconds. If you see volume at 5.3 million 10 seconds before the close and at the close it has 8.1 million you can infer 2.3 million institutional buying if price is firm. There has been significant daily accumulation by large buyers in the miners, value stocks, versus the opposite in growth stocks recently. Come in the water, it’s fine.
I track 26 miners and 5 indexes every day for this activity.
Not disagreeing with you. We could definitely see a strong rise in miners in the near term, I just highly doubt this is “the big one”–i.e., where silver busts through $30 and the junior silver miners finally exceed their 2016 highs. I think the truly big move (I am talking 10-20x current levels in the silver juniors) will start in 2023. Could I be wrong? Absolutely. I actually hope I am wrong and it comes earlier and in a smoother manner–I’ve been waiting patiently since 2016 as the world has literally passed me by.
Here is why I am skeptical of a “bull market” in precious metals and the miners. Does anyone believe that the bastards in control of the fiat prison they we the sheeple imprisoned in are going to give up that control without a fight?