Goldtent TA Paradise

Bear Flags break down

1. Nautilus says:

   June 29, 2021 - 9:47 am at 9:47 am

   Gold’s 100 WMA is coming in at $1726. Personally, I think that is a very low risk entry point. Could it go a bit lower on a serious shakeout? Sure, but I doubt it stays below the 100 WMA for more than a 2-3 weeks.

   That being said, I also don’t believe gold is going to rocket to the moon immediately. While the initial bounce may be large, as with silver, I am not expecting much out of gold until later this year.

   The same is true for the miners, I believe. The 100 WMA in a bull market is a good place to take a long bet, IMO. Again, it’s possible GDX dips a little below the 100 WMA for a week or two, but I am not betting on that.

   For the lowest risk entry, wait for a touch of the 100 WMA and then wait for a swing low on the weekly chart before taking a new position.

   • Nautilus says:

     June 29, 2021 - 9:55 am at 9:55 am

     I am also not ruling out the possibility of a significant low being put in this week, and that gold may not get all the way down to its 100 WMA just yet. That being said, I would expect the 100 WMA to eventually get tagged before the next leg up begins. However, that could come 6 months from now and the 100 WMA will be higher then, possibly by $50-75. Again, under any scenario, you can lower your risk by waiting for a weekly swing low to be made.

     • Silverhawk says:

       June 29, 2021 - 10:15 am at 10:15 am

       GDX and GDXJ are now at or under the 100 WMA?

       • Nautilus says:

         June 29, 2021 - 10:17 am at 10:17 am

         Both are basically right at the 100 WMA, with GDXJ only 6 cents away as of today.

         • Nautilus says:

           June 29, 2021 - 10:18 am at 10:18 am

           They are both still above that MA. Check stockcharts.com and go to weekly chart and change one of the simple MAs to 100.

       • Nautilus says:

         June 29, 2021 - 10:24 am at 10:24 am

         The weekly stochastics are not oversold yet for either, although if this week closes red, they should be oversold by next week. Basically, of it were me, I would nibble here, nibble more next week and then get more aggressive after gold makes a swing low on the weekly chart. Do you own DD though and this is not investment advice by any means.

         • pedro_deleon says:

           June 29, 2021 - 10:35 am at 10:35 am

           “The weekly stochastics are not oversold yet for either, although if this week closes red, they should be oversold by next week.”

           Concur. Hence my call that the first intermediate wave (1 down) is close to done. My read is that we are dropping at higher degrees. So the next bounce (wave 2 up) will lead into a waterfall. Wave 2 could take two months and lead to headlines in Wyoming.

2. pedro_deleon says:

   June 29, 2021 - 9:52 am at 9:52 am

   If by “Wave 2” you are characterizing this in Elliott terms, I have to dissent.
   I have this as a small 5th wave, off the last rally high. That should end this little impulse down. My read is that this little 5 down will end 1 of C down. (Or possibly 1 of 3 down.)

   Labeling the move down off the autumn highs, and then the BMR, is open to interpretation.

   The larger C and 3 being structural equivalents, for the time being.
   If C, the entire decline from Sept is corrective. (ABC)
   If 3, its another matter altogether. Then it becomes an impulse down, and implies more to come well down the road.
   That question won’t be resolved anytime soon.

   • Silverhawk says:

     June 29, 2021 - 10:14 am at 10:14 am

     No, not referring to EW at all, just meant waterfall number 2 on this plunge.

3. Plunger says:

   June 29, 2021 - 9:56 am at 9:56 am

   I expect it runs to the March lows then begins a bounce. Then the real test begins

   • Nautilus says:

     June 29, 2021 - 9:59 am at 9:59 am

     I don’t think GDX gets anywhere near $26, as you predicted in an earlier post. (I know, I know, famous last words.) The 100 WMA, is a very low risk spot to get long IMO and any dip below that MA should be bought very aggressively. JMHO.