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While it’s possible silver breaks up and out of its 1 year consolidation very soon, I also believe that we may have to endure 1 more cycle of consolidation before it does break out. For me that means it won’t happen until the fall of this year or potentially even around the beginning of 2022.
What that means in the short run is that silver may head up to the $30 level again, only to fall back down (maybe as low as the 100 WMA) before beginning its trek to $50+. This is going to frustrate the heck out of bugs (like me), but it will absolutely be nothing out of the ordinary and IMO is actually more bullish with respect to the size and length of the ensuing breakout.
I have been 100% long since just off the COVID crash lows and have no intention of trading around any of these gyrations, as I have no conviction about the exact “when” this will all play out. I just realize based on history, and looking at other massive runs, that we may have to wait a handful of months yet before the real deal.
I repect your well presented position, Sir Nautilus. You are cautiously optimistic and staying long, which is the prudent strategy. I would suggest that although you are relying on history(what else is there) the fact that we have broken the downtrend line of the handle(30 yr.cup and 7-8 yr. handle) means we are going to between 30-50 sooner rather than later. Yes, while the real breakout above the ATH of 50, double top rim of the cup, may not be broken for months to come, the recent high at 30+ will soon be history.
I agree. This is no impulse move, but a bear market rally. It peters out fast and runs in spurts.
Not a bear market rally. You are in a bull market for gold and silver. Gold made new ATH just months ago. That doesn’t happen in a bear market. Silver will soon confirm.
Rambus Work Concurs…Bull Market