Loading ...EURIKA
MAYBE I’VE REDISCOVERED THE KEY TO THE GOLD MARKET
The Inverse Relation of the Gold Price to the Real Rates has been discused here many times
Could this be the ONE , The ONLY driver of the Gold Price ?
Real Rates can be expressed by the 10 year Rate ; divided by the TIPs ( Inflation protected Bond Rate)
As the $TNX rises vs the TIPs…Real Rates are rising and thus Gold is less precious .
also note the 30 month MA seems to be a good support resistance point on this chart
CLASSIC CHARTOLOGY
Thanks, Fully. Very interesting chart.
Simply lovely until…
Nice chart and it correlates very well with what we’ve been seeing for a long time.
I have a $TNX:TIP DAILY linear chart from a few months ago. It was posted elsewhere by Henrik Zeburg. ( https://twitter.com/HenrikZeberg )
He is calling for a ratio high of 0.172 ( retest of Q3 2019 high ) and a deflation before the commodity bull resumes.
There are others ( eg. Rick Rule ) suggesting the commodity bull is ahead of itself and a pullback is underway.
That being said, on the Daily chart the RSI declined from very overbought in a series of lower highs while $TNX:TIP continued to rise – in other words, a negative divergence to price (bearish) while the MACD has rolled over and is declining (bearish) Meanwhile the ratio has hit Weekly/Monthly trend line resistance.
Elsewhere in the Gold-o-sphere there are flickers of life. So maybe, maybe, maybe we have seen the worst of it.
Very nice chart, Sir Fully.
Two things … gold is related to EXPECTED real rates. Not off past inflation.
And TIPS are a government calculated measure of current/recent inflation, based on its fraudulent CPI.
So its the right idea for sure. Substitute sentiment on future inflation for past, and a valid measure of that. Which is going to be in your mind, not in some index. Or in J-Po and Jellin’s minds, to be more precise.
Since everyone wants to know, I suspect the bottom of this “next/current on going” IT decline will likely mark “a bottom”. Could be EW 1 of C down. Could be 4 of B up. Roll your own dice!
I think we are getting close to a weekly cci/sto divergence, might not happen but another flush looks like it wood be a divergent bottom, starting to nibble back in on the better looking charts. Lebanon,Turkey to the currency slaughterhouse, who is next??