Goldtent TA Paradise

GOLD ; SILVER RATIO

1. YYZ says:

   March 29, 2021 - 1:19 am at 1:19 am

   An observation about the GSR since 1967.

   On a monthly basis when it has fallen greater than 25% within a 12 month period it has always * rebounded at least 25% (from the 12mo low), again in the following 12 month period.

   * exceptions to this observation include ’74, ’79 and ’11 events.

   We just experienced a 43% drop (MoM) from March ’20 to March ’21.

   FWIW – my laymans forecast.
   Unless the GSR is headed straight to what I’d consider a (an even midterm) blow-off event from here (GSR headed to 50 and lower), I do believe we will see a GSR of 80-85 within the next twelve months. Furthermore, this rebound in the GSR will not happen at higher PM prices, but lower. My target is Gold at under $1700 and silver (spot, not phys) at $22-20 (premiums will remain elevated, just as in March ’20).

   Possible causes or combination thereof
   1) Velocity fails to spark inflation that everyone is saying is coming SOON (ie there will be some deflation before inflation kicks in).
   2) Sudden Stock Market correction (or worse) – PM’s will only be hit momentarily
   3) Bond yields are allowed to remain flat or even rise further (real yields up)
   4) Another big spike upward in the stock market (or even BTC) taking weak hands from silver.

   I DO hope I’m wrong and we just go into steady decline in the GSR toward a parabolic silver blowoff.

   I will be buying phys silver at GSR 80-85 at whatever premium may be.