Below is a “conservative” projection done by a member here in a post ( cut and paste to protect the innocent)

……….

While it appears China might have things under control, John Hopkins CSSE has reported 17400 cases of Coronavirus as of today OUTSIDE China. Only 16 days ago on 18th Feb it was just 1000 reported cases:
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
The average daily increase over this period is 19.7%.
if you do a back of envelope extrapolation over the next 2 months assuming a more conservative trajectory of just 15% increase per day:

if you do a back of envelope extrapolation over the next 2 months assuming a more conservative trajectory of just 15% increase per day:
+70K ppl could be affected by middle of this month
+600K ppl could be affected by end of this month
+5M ppl could be affected by middle of April
+40M ppl could be affected by end of April
+350M ppl could be affected by middle of May
You can do the math for end of May …
.

Check out table below – I think there may be an elephant in the room with a black swan perched on top.
Day
Reported Cases – Outside China
% Increase from previous day
18-Feb-20
1,000

19-Feb-20
1,100
10.0%
20-Feb-20
1,200
9.1%
21-Feb-20
1,400
16.7%
22-Feb-20
1,700
21.4%
23-Feb-20
2,000
17.6%
24-Feb-20
2,400
20.0%
25-Feb-20
2,800
16.7%
26-Feb-20
3,300
17.9%
27-Feb-20
4,300
30.3%
28-Feb-20
5,300
23.3%
29-Feb-20
6,800
28.3%
1-Mar-20
8,500
25.0%
2-Mar-20
10,300
21.2%
3-Mar-20
12,700
23.3%
4-Mar-20
14,900
17.3%
5-Mar-20
17,400
16.8% (Actuals)
6-Mar-20
20,010
15.0% (Estimates)
7-Mar-20
23,012
15.0%
8-Mar-20
26,463
15.0%
9-Mar-20
30,433
15.0%
10-Mar-20
34,998
15.0%
11-Mar-20
40,247
15.0%
12-Mar-20
46,284
15.0%
13-Mar-20
53,227
15.0%
14-Mar-20
61,211
15.0%
15-Mar-20
70,393
15.0%
16-Mar-20
80,952
15.0%
17-Mar-20
93,094
15.0%
18-Mar-20
107,059
15.0%
19-Mar-20
123,117
15.0%
20-Mar-20
141,585
15.0%
21-Mar-20
162,823
15.0%
22-Mar-20
187,246
15.0%
23-Mar-20
215,333
15.0%
24-Mar-20
247,633
15.0%
25-Mar-20
284,778
15.0%
26-Mar-20
327,494
15.0%
27-Mar-20
376,619
15.0%
28-Mar-20
433,111
15.0%
29-Mar-20
498,078
15.0%
30-Mar-20
572,790
15.0%
31-Mar-20
658,708
15.0%
1-Apr-20
757,514
15.0%
2-Apr-20
871,142
15.0%
3-Apr-20
1,001,813
15.0%
4-Apr-20
1,152,085
15.0%
5-Apr-20
1,324,898
15.0%
6-Apr-20
1,523,632
15.0%
7-Apr-20
1,752,177
15.0%
8-Apr-20
2,015,004
15.0%
9-Apr-20
2,317,254
15.0%
10-Apr-20
2,664,842
15.0%
11-Apr-20
3,064,569
15.0%
12-Apr-20
3,524,254
15.0%
13-Apr-20
4,052,892
15.0%
14-Apr-20
4,660,826
15.0%
15-Apr-20
5,359,950
15.0%
16-Apr-20
6,163,942
15.0%
17-Apr-20
7,088,533
15.0%
18-Apr-20
8,151,813
15.0%
19-Apr-20
9,374,585
15.0%
20-Apr-20
10,780,773
15.0%
21-Apr-20
12,397,889
15.0%
22-Apr-20
14,257,572
15.0%
23-Apr-20
16,396,208
15.0%
24-Apr-20
18,855,639
15.0%
25-Apr-20
21,683,985
15.0%
26-Apr-20
24,936,583
15.0%
27-Apr-20
28,677,071
15.0%
28-Apr-20
32,978,631
15.0%
29-Apr-20
37,925,426
15.0%
30-Apr-20
43,614,240
15.0%
1-May-20
50,156,376
15.0%
2-May-20
57,679,832
15.0%
3-May-20
66,331,807
15.0%
4-May-20
76,281,578
15.0%
5-May-20
87,723,815
15.0%
6-May-20
100,882,387
15.0%
7-May-20
116,014,745
15.0%
8-May-20
133,416,957
15.0%
9-May-20
153,429,501
15.0%
10-May-20
176,443,926 ……..ACTUAL NUMBER 4,126,890
15.0%
11-May-20
202,910,514
15.0%
12-May-20
233,347,092
15.0%
13-May-20
268,349,155
15.0%
14-May-20
308,601,529
15.0%
15-May-20
354,891,758
15.0%
16-May-20
408,125,522
15.0%
17-May-20
469,344,350
15.0%
18-May-20
539,746,002
15.0%
19-May-20
620,707,903
15.0%
20-May-20
713,814,088
15.0%
21-May-20
820,886,201
15.0%
22-May-20
944,019,132
15.0%
23-May-20
1,085,622,001
15.0%
24-May-20
1,248,465,302
15.0%
25-May-20
1,435,735,097
15.0%
26-May-20
1,651,095,361
15.0%
27-May-20
1,898,759,666
15.0%
28-May-20
2,183,573,615
15.0%
29-May-20
2,511,109,658
15.0%
30-May-20
2,887,776,106
15.0%
31-May-20
3,320,942,522
15.0%