Loading ...What’s the True Rate of Deaths ?
I don’t know and neither do you…. BUT…It is the single most important Question being asked and more and more and more studies of antibodies in random samples of populations are showing it is far lower than the Mortality rate per reported cases.
At some point there will be enough information from a large random sampling from many locations and we will have a real solid number.
My guess is in the order of .1% to .3%
Then we will have the discussion is it necessary to shut down the economy and destroy peoples lives based
on this morbidity rate that is soon forthcomming.
The number will be further analyzed by removing cases from long term care facilities…thats just a fact whether or not we who have loved ones in such facilities agree or not.
Forgive me if I sound obsessed with this…because I am
My Question is and always will be
What is the chance of an individual out in general circulation dying from Covid once they contract it.
“If” it’s .1% ..would YOU take that chance or would you prefer to be under house arrest indefinately ?
That is THE Question !
Each of us should be able to make our own decision based on this number.
No doubt some have been so traumatized from this will chose to self isolate until they die…and that is their perogative.
My heros are the ones who are working hard day and night to discover and create and distribute accurate blood tests
so we can soon have the answer to this question.
There is a more important question, who opened Pandora’s box?
One has more chance of getting killed in a road accident, than to die from this thing .
This is based on road accident deaths globally, the numbers are factual and verifiable.
On that basis, governments should be banning driving…if they really care, that is.
And what about smoking related deaths (huge numbers) … if governments care so much, then ban smoking.
And what about alcohol related deaths (huge numbers) … if governments care so much, then ban alcohol.
In fact, life is a very dangerous activity. So lets ban that too!
Put everybody under permanent lock-down and destroy western civilization. This is the cabal real agenda … yes, no kidding!
Globally, 3,700 people die in road accidents daily. I am sure those numbers are down because of sheltering in place. So the virus undoubtably spared some of our fair citizens. I do understand what you are saying but what about the recent Swine Flu, the Flu of the 50’s or Spanish Flu? All pandemics of the last 100 years. What about ebola? What about viruses that have been eradicated that by todays standard aren’t much (measles, rubella)? These viruses aren’t stone cold killers but if left unchecked over time they kill millions Viruses make us stronger, they are the sharpening stone to the knife of life. But at some point we either beat them and take on the next foe or there is no next battle. I love a good conspiracy theory and there is no doubt in my mind that this is a giant power grab for absolute control of the citizens of earth. But there is also real science happening, hell it’s man vs. nature, a classic battle! Your examples above are good but they are all choices. You choose to drive, you choose to drink and you choose to smoke. Viruses although necessary aren’t a choice. We can’t see them, smell them or taste them, that just isn’t very sporting. And for sneaking up on us like that and killing us we choose to try and defeat them. This is actually a great ring side seat. Modern technology, humans and almost global conscious rallying against this lowly virus. We will clearly wins this battle but this could be a warm up. Spock, at what point would you get on board the current mandates? What if the next one had a mortality rate of 50%? Would you agree that might be a good thing to take drastic measures against? What I want to know is, for the first time in history, was this little mojo bastard beefed up and weaponized. If so this flies in the face of the Geneva convention joining the ranks of chemical weapons like chlorine and mustard gas, It is just foul play man. I don’t know if permanent lock down was an agenda. It wasn’t during Spanish Flu where cities like St. Louis flattened the curve quickly yet Philadelphia didn’t listen and they suffered greatly. As for destroying western civilization, it wasn’t much to look at anyways and I think we can do better. At least they finally figured out how to blame something that wasn’t another country or is this the prelude to that dance?
“You choose to drive, you choose to drink and you choose to smoke.” Very true.
You choose to destroy immune systems too; which then cannot cope with a novel virus.
Fauci, when he was head at NIH in USA five years ago, approved US taxpayer funding of $3.7 million to be used at the Wuhan bio lab in China, to continue research on corona viruses “gain of function”… for what purpose? This research was shut down in 2014 in North Carolina, USA bio lab, as the Fed banned the work on the basis that it was potentially dangerous to humanity. So Fauci simply moved the research outside USA, into China.
So with US tax payer funding in a Chinese bio lab, we got the “gain of function” SARS Cov2 virus, now in the global population.
Fauci is now the head of the CDC, funded by Bill Gates.
You could not make this stuff up, even if you tried really hard.
None of this matters Fully. In countries where the virus really took hold (Italy, Spain, France, UK), the healthcare system was put under enormous pressure. The reproduction rate was brought back below 1 (and thus numbers of people infected began to fall) via total lockdown. We are now in a position to start lifting measures one by one in coming weeks/months. The result of lifting each measure will start to come through in the infection rate around 2 weeks after each measure is lifted. This has to be done in stages to make sure the ‘r’ number stays below 1. If it doesn’t, the virus will expand again. Why does this matter ? Why can’t we just let people make up their own mind and take their own risk ? Because fit, healthy people who sometimes don’t even know they’ve had the virus have passed it onto others who made the mistake of touching a surface they had touched, or breathed the air they had exhaled. and died as a result. Healthcare workers don’t die from seasonal flu. This virus has taken the lives of around 100 frontline workers in less than 8 weeks. Public opinion here in the UK is strongly in favour of the lockdown. There are dissenting voices, but very much in the minority. Maybe because most of us know of someone who has been taken by the virus. Not like smoking (you know you’re taking a cancer risk). not like car crashes (usually caused by bad driving habits). Catching a virus is not a calculated choice. Here in the UK we don’t want to collapse our NHS and put the nurses through more hell. I know personally how terrified they are and exactly what they’ve had to deal with (nothing like anything they’ve ever seen in their careers – they are traumatised). I put my own personal freedom (for a few months) BEHIND someone elses right to life (‘even’ if they are over 80 years old, and living in a care home).
I accept the argument about the terrible damage being done to the economy, but if we had put all of our time, energy and resources into scientific pursuits, high quality universal healthcare and the advancement of human knowledge instead of pointless wars, with billions going to our armed forces, perhaps we would be in a better position. That, of course, is utopian nonsense – as a race, we’re incapable of doing it. It’s all about who has the most weapons and ‘power’.
So where does that leave us ? With a choice…actually, 3 choices as I see it…continued lockdown with further economic destruction (and associated negative effects on society), or a phased return to a ‘new normal’ (incorporating sensible precautions), or forget about the virus altogether, get back to normal and accept the outcome (which here in the UK would be a rapid resurgence of Covid-19 through the 80-90% of our population who haven’t had it yet, resulting in a few hundred thousand dying and no access to healthcare for anybody, for any reason, for months). A recent testing study here revealed up to 6 million people have likely had the virus, leaving 60 million who haven’t.
There are no easy answers, but public opinion here continues to support our governments approach of lockdown, followed by a very slow, phased return to a ‘new normal’ then (once there is an effective vaccine or the virus ‘goes away’) a return to normal.
Each country has to make it’s own decisions.
Some valid points except !!!
“Once there is an effective vaccine or the virus ‘goes away’) a return to normal.”
How do YOU Know there will be an effective vaccine or that the virus will just go away ?
How long are YOU willing to wait for those things to happen ?
I would argue we don’t even have an effective vaccine for the flu after these many years ( the flu vaccine is said to be 50% effective at best , 350 million people still get the flu every year)… and it has NOT gone away !
It is pure speculation at this point that the covid virus will “go away”….It probably won’t….it is pure speculation that we will have an effective vaccine…we probably won’t !
Then what ? You will have waited 18 months and have 50% unemployments and a mad max scenario with not enough food to go around and still have Covid lurking around every corner.
YOU are assuming too much here….Neither of these things you are “waiting” for has any probability of happening !!!
If it has a kill rate of in the range of .1 to .3% and remains ubiquitous and resistant to vaccination then OUT we go into a world with a new pathogen …and soldier on as we have in the past so many times.
and another thing…SINCE WHEN IN A DEMOCRATIC SOCIETY HAVE WE MADE DECISIONS THAT MAY BENIFIT .1 TO .3% OF SOCIETY WHILST COMPROMISING 99.9 TO 99.7 % ….SINCE WHEN ?
The news is still breaking in England, but thousands upon thousands of deaths have been confirmed outside the hospital system (especially in retirement homes and care homes). The number of excess deaths also strongly suggests thousands upon thousands more also died as a result of Covid-19, but haven’t been recorded as such. I can confirm this from my own personal experience. One of our relatives died before his time having suffered all of the Covid-19 symptoms. He wasn’t allowed to go to hospital, and he wasn’t tested. Many more died in the days after, and eventually they began testing and found out it was Covid-19 (but not before several had already been cremated – so they will NEVER be included in the figures). They have had 16 deaths in 3 weeks, compared to an average of less than 1. This is a common story across the UK care sector apparently. None of these many thousands of deaths are included in the official figures (yet).
There is also a story circulating that not all deaths attributed to covid were from covid. Choose which story to believe but does it matter ?
We need to talk about how many will die of secondary effects in the next 5 to 10 years if the economy doesn’t open…and the answer is multiples more than the 20 to 30 Thousands in your country alone ..and it wont be the old and infirm this time..They won’t be counted every day and listed on the media sites…suicides….murders…malnutrition…other communicable disesase….not to mention the number to suffer enormously compromised lives going forward …the misey factor can that be measured ?
Bottom line a continued lockdown will kill multiples more and and untold misery to huge sections of the worlds populations in every society first second and third world.
We agree on staged openings..not just mass openings…but we disagree that it should begin NOW !!!
AGAIN I ASK
SINCE WHEN IN A DEMOCRATIC SOCIETY HAVE WE MADE DECISIONS THAT MAY BENIFIT .1 TO .3% OF SOCIETY WHILST COMPROMISING 99.9 TO 99.7 % ….SINCE WHEN ?
I agree with many of your points. But when you say ‘how many will die of secondary effects….multiples of 20 to 30 thousand…’ that’s my point … without lockdown it would’ve been multiples of 20 to 30 thousand. You are arguing hundreds of thousands/millions will die of secondary effects, and I’m suggesting hundreds of thousands/millions would’ve died of the virus itself (if we hadn’t had a lockdown). In you scenario (no lockdown) there would be no hospital care for anyone for months due to capacity being breached many times over. In my scenario the deaths are spread over a much longer timeframe, allowing the health system to continue operating and for people to receive organ transplants and cancer care as normal (which hasn’t been possible in the UK for weeks, even with the relatively ‘small’ number of Covid-19 cases that we managed to achieve).
NO LOCKDOWN IS NOT MY
“MY” SCENARIO NORTHSTAR
My scenario was we needed a lockdown….had to do it ..period !….. until we got a handle on the virus and it’s kill rate….now we need to open up asap as the kill rate is being exposed as far far lower than thought !
I’m talking about from today onwards Fully. Your scenario, or suggestion is no more lockdown. I’m saying that would result in hundreds of thousand dying in England over the course of the Summer. Some countries/states are further on than we are here, and are ready to come out of lockdown. We’re not at that stage yet, with thousands still becoming infected and dying each week.
It’s not like flicking a switch – you could of course, go straight back to exactly how it was before, but over here, we plan to do it in incremental stages, like firing up an old nuclear reactor you can’t do it all in one go, without risking a fatal explosion (‘r’ rising above 1 and many more thousands dying).
Care homes should all be quarantined, as the residents are higher risk. But its impractical, as the care home workers live outside in the community, and will therefore be carriers. Plus supplies going into the homes. Better to find a solution to this problem asap.
Amen to that Spock. It’s an unfolding disaster. Care home workers are distraught at the level of loss over here. People with many years ahead of them are dying in large numbers, in extreme pain, with no family around.
I am not talking about what HAS happened I am talking about what is now and what will happen
The lockdowns are helping…maybe …look at Sweden..they had voluntary lockdowns…each citizen decided what level of risk they would take
Primary schools all remained open and well attended…stores restaurants open but less well attended
They have a death rate per 1 million population which although worse than Norway and Finland was better than many Conntires with strict lock downs …including UK Netherlands Iceland Belguim Italy Spain France….so did the lockdowns save millions of lives ?
Speculation !
Will the lockdowns cause a depression ….No Speculation ..
As far as public opinion..thats my point..public opinion is moulded by the media and governments messaging.
Of course most would favor lockdowns if the kill rate was 6% as is being reported..I would too !
Most dont consider the real numbers.
They are coming out in a very quiet corner of the media..a few dribs and drabs …showing the kill rate is infinately lower and the chance of YOU dying from covid is infintissimal .
What if the public KNEW that….it’s time to educate based on real numbers not based on sensationalism.
Up until right now we had no “real” numbers…lets see if the media and governments accept and promote
the real numbers.
and another thing…SINCE WHEN IN A DEMOCRATIC SOCIETY HAVE WE MADE DECISIONS THAT MAY BENIFIT .1 TO .3% OF SOCIETY WHILST COMPROMISING 99.9 TO 99.7 % ….SINCE WHEN ?
The operators of 1,128 homes – 5% of the UK’s total – have reported more than 1,800 deaths to the Guardian in England. By extrapolation that suggests a possible number of 36,000 deaths in care home so far (and the death rate is still going up). The official Covid-19 death toll in the UK is just above 20,000 but doesn’t take any of these care home deaths into account. 56,000 deaths (so far, even with lockdown, in a small country like ours). This underlines the fact that this is NOTHING like flu. Fully is, of course, right – there is no guarantee of an effective vaccine, ever.
It’s best we understand the full enormity of the risks we are ‘choosing’ to take though.
This needs answering
SINCE WHEN IN A DEMOCRATIC SOCIETY HAVE WE MADE DECISIONS THAT MAY BENIFIT .1 TO .3% OF SOCIETY WHILST COMPROMISING 99.9 TO 99.7 % ….SINCE WHEN ?
Since the projected death toll is like this…
UK – 21,092 Covid deaths so far, likely to end up nearer 25,000
UK – 30,000+ care home deaths
UK – 50,000+ overall deaths March/April/May taking the above into account
UK – study shows up to 6 million have had Covid-19
UK – 60 million still susceptible to the virus (the 6 million who have had it may be able to get it again as well)
UK – Unchecked, with current death rate, another 500,000 would perish
For the sake of those 500,000 the majority of the UK population supports current measures
If the chances of dying from Covid-19 are as small as you say, how is it that 2 of my immediate family have died after contracting Covid-19 ? How is it that my cousin (young and fit) caught it and became extremely ill ? How is it that one of my neighbours a couple of streets away died from Covid-19 ? How is it that my father who lives 20 minutes away from me rang a few days ago to say his neighbour (in the house which is attached to his) is in hospital very seriously ill with Covid-19 ? This doesn’t seem like a very low risk to me. People all around me are getting very, very sick with this virus. Even our Prime Minister was intensive in care. I haven’t even mentioned the friends of friends I have who are dead/very ill with the virus.
If the risk was so incredibly small, there is no way I could possibly know all of these people who have had it. There is still a lot we don’t know about this thing.
That is indeed the scariest part of all NS, the book isn’t closed on this. The kinds of stories I see with patients is alarming. I don’t buy that my immune system is slowly deteriorating. At least not where I am and after four weeks of lockdown. I actually have the same routine I have had for years. I work from home, I exercise in the neighborhood amongst my neighbors, I am amongst viruses all day long, there are millions of them but only some of them affect humans negatively. Would my immune system eventually become weaker in extreme isolation, like a vacuum?! It would take years in isolation I figure to compromise. After all, Nietzsche said, it is blunt but true, “What doesn’t kill you makes you stronger.”
Exactly so you WILL get this virus…it is not going away …and WHEN you get it it will either kill you or make you stronger
The evidence says 99.XX % get stronger.
Is this perhaps natural selection ?
I understand and offer my sincere condolences to you and your community.
This is NOT the experience of 99% of the world.
So should the 99% not begin to reopen considering that there were and are pockets where this thing was rampant.
I live in a province of 13 million
we have had 1000 deaths . I have a different pespective as I don’t know anybody who died .
60% of these deaths were in long term care homes
ALL of those were patients Zero caregivers even though many did get infected.
So therin lies the rub
Why is it so virulent in some places and no so virulent in others
And should all places be locked down even though infection and death rates are very low ?
I am sure there are areas even on your small island that had far fewer recorded infections and deaths than your area.
At the end of this ..If You have a population of 60 Million and 60 K deaths …thats still 1 in 1000.
Anyhow each country and each region in that country needs to decide by consensus the right path going forward.
Again Sorry to hear how many people in you life have been affected ?
Where are you located NS if I may ask
PS… I am surprised that a country such as yours did not report accurately their deaths.
ALL other countries reported care home deaths along with other deaths each day.
What is up with this
How come they were not included each day ?
That seems like a huge miscalculation …how could this be ?
I was interested to hear the suggestion that 6 million have had it
so far excluding care homes
20,000 deaths out of 6 million infections …that is a .3 death rate in the general population
certainly higher than the flu.
But if this stat holds true …you all must decide if that is worth the risk or not.
Thats what this is all about
What risk are you as an individual able to accept.
Those without jobs probably have a higher risk tolerance than those with jobs from home
It’s not 20,000 deaths Fully – it’s over 50,000 if you add in the care home deaths. I live near Newcastle – Northeast England. All regions of England have been similarly affected except the southwest which is more isolated and rural. The numbers of deaths reported by all the EU countries (and others), to the best of my knowledge DO NOT include deaths that occured outside hospital. That’s the WHO standard reporting practice, because care home deaths are recorded in a much more hap-hazard manner, with a time-lag of weeks.
Here the care home figures are reported included in daily totals…there may be a lag but they are updated daily.
They do keep track of them seperately as well
So in Ontario about 600 deaths out of 1000 in a province of 13 million were residents in Care homes..so far
Looks like the same is done in the USA…cases are included daily.
I can’t believe that until now in the UK no one was aware that the cases were actually over double.
Must have been a well kept secret.
I am sure we will see them added to the total ..unless nobody really cares what the totals are and all of this counting thruought the world is bullshit.
why bother counting if the counting is selective
sheesh
Completely agree with you there Fully. Many countries do not include care home deaths. Here’s a quote from the Guardian…
The comparison game has been especially marked in Belgium, which on paper has the unhappy title of highest number of Covid-19 deaths per capita in Europe. Belgium – population 11.5 million – has counted at least 6,675 deaths since the start of the outbreak, more than Germany, which is nearly eight times more populous.
But such comparisons can be misleading. Unlike the UK, Italy or Spain, Belgium counts all coronavirus deaths outside hospitals in its daily statistics: deaths in care homes account for 53% of the total.
I was wondering wtf with little Belgium….Netherlands too ( outsized numbers)
That makes sense
Why bother counting if you leave out 50% of the cases….that’s nuckin Futz
We watch these websites with up to the minute cases and death and they are basically BS
sheesh
Agreed Fully. Apparently the care home deaths in the UK will be included in the daily reported numbers from tomorrow…