Loading ...84 TONS standing for delivery
Apologies if you have never read Harvey Organ posts on the COMEX, not the easiest read. I would personally love to see all these contracts stand for delivery but sadly many will settle for more paper. Unless this time is truly different…
This could be the straw that broke camels back… who long before delivery issues settled? What if contract owners get scared and don’t want to roll-over and take delivery? (You are right.. that is very hard to read.. unfortunate as good info hidden in there!).. Some moving parts creating this “unusual” chaos in the gold market. I’m thinking “they” can’t let spot rise too much until delivery issues are settled. Could you imagine if spot ran 100$ in these conditions? Futures contract would go BALLISTIC!!!
It actually did. When spot gold ran from 1465 to 1600… futures where +75$ .. then from 1575$ spot to 1665$… futures were +68$.
Now, if spot goes to from 1650$ to 1700$.. I see futures at 1775$… If we still have these supply issues.
Also.. silver is having SAME symptoms as gold.
Patrick, would it be accurate to say that spot and futures have zero to do with physical-in-hand-today. That’s what I see. No one can buy even lowest grade silver at close to spot. I’d think it’s a no brainer to be on the BUY side (and demand delivery) of a near term futures contract. How long do you think it will take arbitrage to kick in – it’s practically free $, that is unless big$ is near certain (why??) that both GOLD and SILVER prices are going to get destroyed in May-June…. looking forward to your comment. Thanks.
This is soo complex.. while it should be simple… or vice versa. I’m starting to think I’m just scratching the surface and really know nothing.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4334938-gold-market-be-to-snap-watch-gofo … this is mind blowing! I need to re read this a few times with coffee. …
Patrick
I was a member of lemetropole café from 2000 to 2010
That’s Bill Murphy’s pay site… He of GATA Gold Anti Trust Action Committee)….you don’t hear about them much now but they were and likely still are
The #1 Manipulation of Gold Site…all day every day !
Harvey Organ was a contributor back then … He and others were doing their thing ..monitoring Comex et all…and I kid you not….He was calling for an imminent Comex Default way back then
I can’t tell you how many times that these guys have said it is definitely imminent…of course it has never happened.
I am surprised he is still at it.
Seems like he knows a lot about the inner workings of comex and LMBA…but has been crying wolf for 2 decades.
sheesh
Yeah Fully.. I don’t like using the word “they” … as I don’t see the edge “believing” in anything brings to my NAV. Eventually when the odds of Comex defaulting become apparent to market participants.. we will see it in the chart (unless a black swan event). However.. maybe we can see the current delivery issues as gold’s equivalent to “repo market”.. that the markets had wayy before any body heard of Corona virus…
Look up some recent Ted Butler interviews. He claims as he always has that JP Morgan is set to make out like bandits as long as they don’t short heavily into this per usual. That is the question, are we finally at that point? JPM is sitting on tons of gold and reportedly has a billion ounces of physical silver. All they would have to do is step aside and sit on their hands and make generational money.
I know Bill and yes they are always pitching the end game, that is the thing Fully, this could be the end. Now they have a new guy that is easier to read than Harvey reporting. He also writes at Jim Sinclair’s site. You have to be a member to read. But you can get a free two week membership to lemetropolecafe. Check it out Patrick: http://www.lemetropolecafe.com/james_joyce_table.cfm?pid=15307
I’ll check it out!
These guys are a broken record.
Here is a report on the silver shortage with huge permiums…from 2013 !
https://goldstockbull.com/articles/ignore-comex-pricing-silver-eagles-sold-out-at-dealers-and-selling-for-33-on-ebay/
2013…was the beginning of the HUGE Drop in silver …you can find tons of Comex Default articles from all thru the years
FWIW….Listening to Gold Permaulls is what almost wiped me out back then…and it DID wipe out many of my contemporaries
It is almost criminal they way the have only ONE song…to keep you all in all day
and yet they yell manipulation all day
How ridiculous is that ?
Comex Default circa 2013
https://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU1307/S00879/gold-surges-3-comex-default-may-lead-to-over-3500oz.htm
Yeah. I looked at the gold and silver charts regarding premium and discount. Not much correlation. It varies. Except now with this delivery/supply/logistic issues. Now the premium reacts to spot movements.. and not the other way around. Check out my previous post with the historic contango/backwardation for gold, it’s a mix bag… Maybe I should just stick to the chart like I used to and stop with detective work.
This stuff is an endless rabbit hole …and you will never figure it out IMHO
Just follow the price action…it’s ALL in the charts
There never has been shortage and never will. Maybe you should ask all the base metals players in the world how many silver they have left in their zinc mines, lots of silver I guess. And about the premiums on gold coins, this is just a delivery issue, on LBMA bars there is NO premium. Goldmoney confirmed they are still buying 15kg gold bars without premium and other gold etf’s said teh same. The only temporary shortage is in small coins and bars. Shortage will be gone in 6/9 months.
Yes Alex. Gold and silver are abundant. Hence why they trade like money and not a perishable commodity. The move in flows… never destroyed. So I think this is purely a distribution/delivery issue.
“I find your lack of faith disturbing.” Lord Vader
Fully, do you recall, did these sorts of things (delivery issues) happen before? …Nothing to see here?
London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) officials have loudly proclaimed there are plenty of gold bars in LBMA and COMEX vaults to meet surging demand from buyers.
Unfortunately for them, confidence is particularly fragile these days and cracks are starting to appear.
Which is why anxious officials there issued not one, but two memos last week in an attempt to reassure traders.
It’s interesting the LBMA, along with the COMEX, felt a need to put out back to back statements. If inventories are plentiful, both exchanges should be busy delivering gold, on time and without delay. The best way to build confidence is simply to meet buyers’ expectations.
The trouble is these expectations are not being met, and officials blaming disruptions related to COVID-19. There are, for example, not enough 100-ounce gold bars in the U.S. to cover demand from those standing for delivery on COMEX futures contracts.
The reason offered is that the Swiss refiners who normally convert 400-ounce bars stored in London to 100-ounce bars needed in the U.S. are temporarily closed. There has also been difficulty in arranging air transport of the gold.
This sounds plausible, but it does not explain a more fundamental problem. Bullion banks sold way more paper 100-ounce bars than they can actually deliver. While there may be lots of physical gold in London, there isn’t enough deliverable gold in U.S. based COMEX vaults to meet delivery demands.
U.S. investors standing for delivery on a contract shouldn’t have to rely on inventory stored in London vaults.
Yet that is exactly what they will have to do. The COMEX changed the terms of their gold futures contract. Now bullion banks can meet delivery requirements with 400 oz bars in an LBMA vault stored overseas.
U.S. buyers might not like getting a partial interest in a 400 oz bar vaulted in London instead of a 100-ounce bar they can take actual possession of here in this country. That is tough luck for them and great news for bullion bankers on the verge of default.
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article66921.html
I’m also think this might not be a logistic issue. Kinda like gold own “repo market” … last time lease rates dropped hard was in 2008 crash…
It has happened before, it can happen again. Paper represents most claimed metal and that which is claimed is done so my many (not yet known). How this isn’t a recipe for disaster I don’t see how. But I am a sporting chap. Let’s let history school us all. 🙂
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4334938-gold-market-be-to-snap-watch-gofo
Good find and read Patrick.
Bikoo got me on the track to lookup lease rates.. another piece of the puzzle.