Gold COT Figures
I really hope everyone gets it now. I posted the first chart when gold was $1343 and lots of people said the ‘extreme’ COT positions were bearish. Utter garbage. These COT positions are EXACTLY what we need, and what you expect in a gold bull which is set to last for many years…
I learn something new everyday!
Just the other day I told a friend about this site. I was explaining some chart patterns and even I was amazed at how much I’ve leaned
from all the charting here and from Rambus.
Thanks so much NS!
Yes thanks for your COT analyisis
it is one of my big Pet Peves
Every time there is a large change in Open Interest…The Specs get Longer and the Commercials by definition get Shorter
people mistake this as the Commercials are setting up to fleece the spec
This is Bull Shit
In the futures market there is NO supply of contracts sitting in somebody’s account like you have with stocks
If somebody wants to buy a contract it is created ( yes out of thin air)
The commercials ( Think Market Makers) are the suppliers …they write the contracts that the specs want to buy.
Yes some specs take the short side ( they pay interest to “borrow” the contracts to sell)…but 99% of the time they are net long.
In a bear market or chop they sell en mass sometimes and the commercials buy back netting profits….and all the idiot COT “analysts” say…see the commercials are the smart money and they always win
Then the idiots apply this logic in a Bull market…well duh…its a bull market BECAUSE there is greater interest in Owning Gold contracts….
In a Bull they can just get longer and commercials still have to sell to them….or the market ceases to function
Commercials have many ways t hedge their shorts so they don’t necessarily lose in this position.
Your work Northstar is amongst the best I have seen to explain this….It’s as clear as day and quite simple…but most get panciked at the raw numbers
Thanks both. I’m deliberately keeping it simple by talking about ‘red and green lines’ rather than large specs, commercials etc. It really doesn’t matter much what the lines represent, it could be apples and bananas – the important bit is how their movements relate to the price of gold.
Thanks to your comments on COT and some others I realized that commercials are just counterparties writing the contracts the speculators buy. Nothing about market manipulation stuff. Great work. Thx.
Exactly