Loading ...Too Far, Too Fast? Gold at $1,330?
The hour is late and BooBooMan is tired (yard work, mowing, too many birthdays, etc.) but he believes this is worth sharing. I do believe Gold bottomed in December 2015 at $1,045.40 Comex. I also believe the odds are that gold has entered the very early stages of a *new* cyclical bull market. My eventual target is approximately $3,300/ounce Comex. However, unless everything in the equity market begins to come completely apart and the frauds at the Fed begin QE on steroids we’re probably going to see a few months of consolidation/correction before the newborn bull can snort once again.
Two very smart technicians whose work is posted below my charts also think so.
A Friday close above .061 on this Weekly Ratio Chart of GLD:$SPX should trigger fireworks on the Comex.
https://goldtadise.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/TechFocus-Weekly-Gold-10-01-19.pdf
Also, here’s the Seasonal Chart for Gold with various time periods. The 15-Year would encompass the period 2003-2018. Would that period be more appropriate if we’re now in a Baby Bull?
$1330 is my bottom line too https://goldtadise.com/?p=449991
Northstar,
I should have credited you AND Fully for the title of this post. It was borrowed from the titles of both your very recent posts.
I am most thankful for the excellent charts and thoughts you share with us. Isn’t it possible that the multi-year “Cup” on those charts of yours could see a “Handle” added, the Handle being a correction over the next month or two?
The comments by Patrick and tshannon78 on your post were quite good, and perhaps we’ll only see a test of the breakout at $1,385 or thereabout. I believe Patrick’s comment on the “sustainability” of a Bull Market is right-on.
Booboo man…You are a gentleman and a scholar
It’s all about sharing our thoughts BBM – great posts from the contributers here help me to advance my own thought processes. Keep up the good work 🙂
Blabbing about seasonality–but of the stocks, not the metal:
the seasonality that has affected me is the seasonality of the PM **stocks**. I paid less attention to the metals.
the main thing that comes to my mind is that it seems that whenever I have needed to have cash to pay for stuff (tuition, taxes) and not had enough around the stocks especially the little ones had gone down and were heading down more. That was the seasonality I remember–always seemed the case. Having to come up with cash for tax (or estimated tax payments from some windfall prior stock sale), or for annual taxes that were unusually high partly from some prior success and having to sell at a bad time to raise more cash. Trying to anticipate end of the year expenses by beating tax loss selling but not starting early enough. It always seemed as though the market knew when I was going to need extra cash and decided to hit the PM stocks so that my pet juniors were hard to sell.
This year I’ve been a bit aggressive in raising cash. I’m starting to more find resistance to selling the penny stocks, especially the base metal stocks, but even PM stocks, in smallish quantities (2-3 thousand USD or so worth) unless I use a market order. I suppose seasonal tax loss selling is setting in.
Thanks for your charts and the two very interesting reports BBM. I wasn’t familiar with either of the authors but they certainly do seem very well versed in their topics.