Loading ...Blow-Off Super-Cycle 5th Wave top – Dow 46K -48K
Back in March or April EWI posted these charts proposing a 2020 top of super-cycle wave 3 and the end of wave 5…that 2020 would commence the beginning of super-cycle wave 4 (down). The previous correcting super cycle wave (wave 2) ended with the revolutionary war. Nothing like a little war to blow off some steam (I’m looking at you, China).
EWI proposed a Phi to the 4th power (of wave 1) top of Dow around 28,2xx peaking in 2020. But what if it peaks at Phi to the 8th power?
One of Parabolic Chuck’s favorite charts is from Sir Schism and it is below. Chuck and I were chatting about a WHAT IF scenario. What if wave 5 has a BLOW OFF top and instead of Phi to the 4th power, it squared to Phi to the 8th power. So I did a little math and it came to Dow 46,255 (+ or – 1%). Next I updated and overlaid the 1995-2000 rally on Schism’s chart and if the stock mark rallies until the end of Trump presidency – look where it hits – right around Dow 46K+. This would also include the current correction stopping above the previous DOW peaks bottoming in the Dow 18K-23K range by December then taking off to Dow 46K – doubling over the next 4 years. To help this scenario manifest there is a (public) rumor QE4 will begin in December 2019.
How crazy can it get? I squared Phi again, Phi to the 16th power and ran the numbers which lead to Dow at 12,xxx,xxx. Yes Dow 12 Million. Sounds impossible, right? but it’s happened before:
If all currencies end up dying and the USD isn’t replaced by a gold-backed dollar before hyper-inflation sets in then we’re potentially looking at Dow 12M as a super cycle wave 5 peak. Gold won’t have any price, nobody would sell if they did what would it be? 1 Billion/ounce?? I doubt this scenario occurs as there are plans to move the USD and global currencies to gold backed currencies. In this new economy balancing imports and exports is key, this is why Trump is trying to rebuild the US manufacturing base.
However if QE4 begins there will be QE to infinity to maintain or liquidity will dry up and then the crash. If QE to infinity then what will be the price of gold?
Hi mpasatieri – if you save your charts onto your device, then click ‘add media’ when posting, it makes the charts ‘clickable’ so that we can see them. You can select ‘edit’ and replace them on this post if you want to. What you say sounds crazy, but todays Dow level would’ve seemed crazy not many years ago. It does feel as if all of this monetary madness is coming to a head as we start a new rate cut cycle from so close to ZERO. It doesn’t look good at all.
Instead of rewriting my comment below is the discussion on this subject in the past.
In summary I will take gold at any time whether DOW is at 5000 or at 100000.
DOW to Gold ratio 1:1.
https://goldtadise.com/?p=424362
By the way it is a valid theory. final 5th wave could do that. What comes next is DOW 6600.
Yes if it goes parabolic and parabolas crash 90%…DOW 50,000 area -> back to DOW 5000. Both Chuck and I heard from those with inside sources the plan under Hillary was to crash the markets but the new plan is not to let the markets crash but to run them up. We’re speculating the reason is because it’ll give that President FDR type power to make structural changes at will and they don’t want Trump messing up their systems that line their pockets/power. Trump is trying to change the system regardless of bull or bear market…or we are all being conned, who knows maybe a little of both. Let’s hope for the best and fight for the best. 🙂
To make your charts enlageable
https://goldtadise.com/?p=357408
Yes, PLEASE.
That would be VERY welcomed!
Tremendously written.
I was actually sitting next to MPasatieri at his computer when he made this. The man is a tremendous man and a math genius 🙂
The one chart no one can see yet is the Weimar Republic stock market. Went to like 60 million?
We’re talking money printing like mad style to get this as the world devalues all of their currencies and everyone loses confidence in paper money moving to tangible things like ownership of companies, real estate or gold/crypto….
AND silver
🙂
Hey Chuck! Thank you for the kind comments but my charts are still butt-ugly, not pretty like yours. 🙂 Maybe we should livestream in front of a whiteboard and monitor and throw out crazy WHAT IF theories for an hour. Think anybody would be interested?
PS …great to see you two geniuses getting together.
🙂
Agree, and to my way of thinking this really pulls things together.
Its consistent with my Keeper post, on the C wave down for gold to <$1000.
"sell what you can, not what you want"
The Credit (and Debt) bubbles burst.
(Fed chooses between Snyder's X$ liquidity crisis (QE to infinity), and
the implications of NIRP on pension fund solvency … you can't lever up negative rates to get 7%. Talk to Brian Reynolds, see his recent interview with MacroVoices iirc.)
The Everything Bubble collapses, banks see collateral go up in smoke.
And its Bail Ins around the globe at some point.
NB: you are an unsecured lender to your bank, with cash accounts.
That goes for cash balances at brokerages too. THEY use banks too.
The Reynolds piece I caught was with RealVision, not MacroVoices.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k9_bWbrYPKg
The bank bail-ins was the original plan and Cyprus was the test. I don’t think that’s the new plan, at least in the US. The plan is to move us off the central banking system to gold-backed currency. I think it’ll be messy (and we’re seeing Trump blame the CB not China in yesterday tweets – they are setting up the CB to take the fall) but I don’t think bail-ins will happen. I don’t know the final transition steps but we know the introductory steps. Blame/de-legitimize the FED, audit the FED (find corruption), End the FED or End the FED as a private corp back to govt ownership … these steps from here are a bit fuzzy and could go several ways. One crazy theory is to cancel all debt denominated in FED reserve debt notes (reasons A)corruption of the FED is made public and B)this was never real money and C)???) and issue a gold-back dollar.
Fully, Thanks for the platform!