Loading ...DOW and gold forecasts
On the web many makes predictions for DOW and GOLD at the same time.
Example: Dow at 100000 and gold at 800.
That puts DOW/ gold ratio at 125.
The ratio has never been this high. Last DOW/gold ratio high was 41 in 1999/2000 bubble when DOW made it to 15000 first time. Today DOW at 26000 the ratio is 17 and gold at 1300.
What gives here for sensational forecasters?????
Let us say DOW at 100000 and take the modest ratio of last high for Dow/Gold ratio 41; Gold will be at $2439 compared to current 1300. Any PM investeors will take this price.
Silver: if holds current Gold to silver ratio of 80 with gold at $2439 will be 30 compared to current $16. BUT when gold goes higher the ratio goes down to 45. Never GSR has remain same while gold is going higher. Silver will rise faster than gold.
So PM investors should not worry about DOW at 100000. Rather welcome it!!!!
Ikes. Great point!
That does sound outrageous when you say it that way.
Well to be fair didn’t say gold would be 800 at November 2023. Have envisioned it bottoming earlier.
Yes gold could go to $800. There is a credible alternative Elliott Wave count out there calling for gold to go down to $800 or lower once it crosses $1236 and below. But DOW will continue to stay with in the range of historic ratio.
Thanks Chuck.
Maybe, and I like this a lot, thank you Sir Bikoo, because of your wise argument, we could see gold bottom much earlier and then get drug up…
But I do see something else happening after 100,000 Dow: the crash of all crashes leading to everything going down at once like in 2008. Leading to the reset and attempt at global currency talked about by Mr. Deepthroat in the past…
More I think about it: Dow:Gold Ratio is going to surprising new highs. Only way….
Now 125:1 sounds insane, and I’m not making any calls like that! 🙂
Great post Sir Bikoo, and have a lot of good info to think about.
LOL!!! Yes review of inter market relationship for gold/silver is important.
PB, I get what you are forecasting but please elaborate on your ‘only way…’ comment. Only way unless….. what? If it’s bank survival we’re talking about – yes it is the ‘only way…’ but I’m not concerned with that as an ‘objective’.
Personally I see the ratio being (artificially) stretched upward and will soon fall precipitously – the action in the ratio from 2000 to 2011 is (to me) a natural adjustment between the value of ‘things’ vs gold (aka real world money) – same as ’29 -’33 and ’71-’80 – the action from 2011 to current is suppression of that natural adjustment (similar to the ’74-’76 petro dollar ‘fix’ which of course didn’t last long).
http://www.macrotrends.net/1378/dow-to-gold-ratio-100-year-historical-chart
Thanks Bikoo and Chuck for this discussion.
if you consider this forcast to be possible,why now simply invest in the dow?
The other stock markets like Nasdaq and Russell will do great or even better…
If I’m actually correct… need to humble myself! I could be so wrong for sure, just what I believe…
Thank you Bikoo, this is a really cool perspective! And very well put too. Makes one think…
Thanks All!