Yield curve signal turn
Yield curve spread 10 yr to 3 months Treasury bill finally turn so it appears while yield spread on long dated treasuries have been widening.
In June of 2007 yield curve turn up from flattening to steepening. NBER 6 months later declared economy is in recession.
From TSI blog:
3/27/2019-This input shifting from bearish to bullish requires a reversal in the yield curve from flattening (long-term rates falling relative to short-term rates) to steepening (long-term rates rising relative to short-term rates). If the reversal is driven primarily by falling short-term interest rates it indicates a boom-to-bust transition, such as occurred in 2000 and 2007, whereas if the reversal is driven primarily by rising long-term interest rates it points to increasing inflation expectations. The US$ gold price could rise to the $1400s during the second quarter of this year as part of an intermediate-term rally, but to get a gold bull market there probably will have to be a sustained trend reversal in the yield curve.
https://tsi-blog.com/2019/03/the-fundamental-backdrop-remains-slightly-bullish-for-gold/