WHAT IF ?
Maybe this thing is just getting started
This one is for Chuck who right now may be a minority of One 🙂
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I don’t think stocks have topped either but we are likely headed into a 4-6 month correction process.
Agree with Surf. Stocks may suffer a sharp correction (possibly very sharp), but have a long way to go yet.
Well from a cycles point of view the SPX has printed a failed daily & weekly cycle, and as it is most likely the DCL (and ICL) will be in November it will ease the parameters for SPX to host a YCL (yearly cycle low)
That being the case the advance out of a YCL almost always surprise to the upside.
So on the weight of evidence I am more likely to agree with PC
“… from a cycles point of view the SPX has printed a failed daily & weekly cycle.”
I saw that. Have been a bit confused in general about what to make of failed cycles.
In this case, the correct interpretation of failed cycles isn’t stock market weakness but more a signal of descent into the YCL, from which onwards and upwards is most likely?
When do failed cycles indicate longer term weakness? Thanks.
A left translated failed daily cycle in say week 10 would mean that the SPX has printed a left translated weekly cycle which has broken below the weekly inclining trend line = “bear”
IMO this is how the mid cycle slow down will commence.
Thanks. For some reason I seem to have a mental block about remembering to check the translation of the weekly cycle. Just did, on the $SPX, and if I’m counting correctly, it peaked on wk. 12. and we’re now in wk 18. So I see we still have time before this IC bottoms. That being said, wk. 12 probably isn’t extremely left translated and with the decline so far having been very steep, it may be indicating that we’re near the bottom of this, rather than an indication that there is much much further to fall. If I’m counting and reading and interpreting the cycles correctly, that’s what I think it’s saying.
If you go back to my original comment we (the group discussion I lead daily) are of the opinion that the SPX will print a “double bottom” with the second & lower being 06 Nov (mid term US elections) so that the ICL will be in week 39 or week 19 if we consider week 20 a mild ICL
The reason for both these opinions is that many of the Australian industrial stocks I follow printed a failed daily cycle and hosted an ICL around week 20 and then printed a left translated weekly cycle which has yet to host an ICL. Those AUS stocks still have potentially another 10 calendar days to run before hosting a DCL and most likely an ICL
So I am more inclined to think that the SPX hosted an ICL in week 20 and is now in week 18 and has therefore printed a failed daily cycle and failed weekly cycle.
Here is the crunch! If we have a failed weekly cycle and the ICL pushes out to 06 Nov then we are in month 9 and have the remainder of the month to print a swing low (advance)
If Nov is the monthly cycle low and YCL then the advance should be quite rapid through to Xmas in DCL and effectively means that the next YCL is some time away and pushes the mid cycle correction out to 2020.
Norvast- “If Nov is the monthly cycle low and YCL then the advance should be quite rapid through to Xmas in DCL and effectively means that the next YCL is some time away and pushes the mid cycle correction out to 2020.”
Yes! Thanks. I don’t really trade significantly yet on this info but it’s a nice edge and interesting to see if it plays out that way.
(I didn’t realize that you were on Surf’s site. I believe I remember him as Hermosa Hank a long time ago on Poly’s site. In any case, thanks for the response and the info. Very interesting.)
Curly Top if you want additional updated information please contact me at norvast@gmail.com
What a beautiful chart Fully. 🙂
I think it was Northstar who did a log and line version of the same chart the other day. It really changed the way the parabola appeared. In one it looked like it was getting started and the other looked like it was nearly vertical.