Loading ...Alternate view
This is the alternate view of the dollar. Worries about emerging market defaults, US ability to finance interest on debt, global slowdown and so on lead the Fed to reverse course, lower interest rates and monetize debt. QE is back and the markets hold up until the ending diagonal pattern completes probably in mid 2023. A monthly close under 91 says this is the most likely pattern
Although in the short term there are likely to be negative forces on gold (more tariffs, Turkish gold sale etc) I expect $1120 to be the worst case target for a low.
Excellent chart!
For whatever the reason it recognises that the USD is headed lower into the 15 year cycle low around 2023 and gold higher despite some headwind over the next few months after the USD hosts an ICL in Oct
The credit cycle will not peak until around 2026-27 but thereafter the culmination of another credit induced recession combined with lower commodity prices will create the environment for a another GFC
What he said 🙂
Interesting Scenario Ranchida .
There are several posts in past by me on USD wolfwaves.
Use the search to find those posts but one is here which replicates the your chart.
https://goldtadise.com/?p=432493
Yes similar. This is an ending diagonal pattern. Target should be 66. Time ratio projection probably 75 months for the leg down to complete.
My target has always been somewhere in the mid 60’s
I think this has a great chance of playing out, at least longer term profile.
Have we finished that wave 2 up yet though?
1120 idea says not yet.
This PM rebound has to catch fire soon, or it will betray mkt perception that $ rally isn’t over.