For me, the line in the sand for this gold mini bull market (or bear market rally?) since December 2015 is around $1230-1232 – or is it $1238-1240? If this is broken to the downside and back-tested, it looks like a much longer correction of this bull run can ensue. This pattern is 2.5 years old now, 30 months and so you might expect a good year’s correction to go on if the uptrend is broken by a move below about $1230-1232 (or perhaps even below $1238-1240, see below).

Andrew’s pitchfork giving $1232 as an allowable low but drawing these things can sometimes be not totally precise – and sometimes they are just a little off the trend channel that emerges, just a little, mind:

With a simple trend line, the situation is more tight, $1238 actually breaks the line by a tiny bit intraday. The horizontal support at $1238 has held (just, see below for comments on intraday vs closing prices):

Going between daily closes (thin red line below) gives the same result actually. $1238 was an intraday dip below the line. So, where did it close?

The lowest close was around $1240, so gold has just got away with it so far. On the intraday (green line) or daily close level (blue line), the support from the lows last December has held – JUST!

An analyst like Paul Coghlan who expertly uses median lines and pitchforks wold probably like the dips below the line and closes above the line but this is a sore test. At least it is occurring on the verge of June/July when prices are often weakest and the metal is also oversold on the main metrics.

It’s hanging on by the skin of its teeth; really marginal here. Is someone looking for that classic pattern that has a false breakout whose name eludes me?

The evergreen http://www.kitco.com site has this for today:
“Bid/Ask 1242.10 / 1243.10
Low/High 1235.80 / 1246.90″
Oops. The intraday support at $1238 was broken to $1235.80. Price has recovered to $1242.10 as of now.
Maybe Friday’s close is going to tell the story or lead up the garden path if someone paints the charts below the lines in the sand. However, if they CAN paint the charts, what does that say about the strength of the market?
Meanwhile, the XAU gold stocks index is just above 80. It started at 100 in 1979, I believe. What a laugh!
At Friday’s close, gold’s spot price was quoted on Kitco at 1241.00/1242.00 Bid/Ask.
That’s called getting away with it narrowly!