Loading ...2yr -10 yr Yield curve warning indicator
Best post to understand this indicator. Once the curve inverts market has 6 to 18 months before recession begins.
Last cycle the curve went from invertsion to steeping in June 2007 and Dec 2007 NBER declared recession has began. By Sept 2008 market crash was in motion to end in March 2009.
A Remarkably Accurate Warning Indicator For Economic And Market Peril
That’s a thing that Bob Hoye used to love to talk about, inverted yield curve, then reversing to steepening (around 2007-2008), although I think he looked for more stock market bearishness also in 2009, 2010, 2011, mainly on the argument that it was a historic credit contraction. He underestimate The Ben Bernank and his printing press, still going strong (for now).