Loading ...Final Support Breached On Gold Log Chart
One ‘line in the sand’ is now behind us, the final one lies just a few dollars away…
This next chart is all that matters now. A false break below support is possible, but it would scare the s**t out of me…
This is where we find out if the power of the long 16-year gold cycle can save us. Place your bets…
EDIT – Thanks to Norvast for pointing out my typo above. 16 year cycle, should of course be 15 !
Still far too early in the gold daily cycle for an ICL.
Sure we will get a bounce as the USD takes a rest, but by the time we get a back-test we will be into early Jul
The AUS miners are still hosting DCH’s so it will take another 2 weeks minimum before they host a DCL
A fantastic buying opportunity awaits if we are patient.
The USD has printed a 3 year low at only 21 months so once it hosts an ICH then it is down for a long time!
Meanwhile gold is going to take a flogging, and plenty will buy at the first bounce, but the patient will await that final low, probably in the first week of Jul.
I wonder what that final low will be. As it’s a couple of weeks away, it’ll be breaking some long term support/trend lines no doubt. At the current pace it could end up around $1150-$1200. Bearish sentiment would be everywhere. Just what you want at a major low/turning point.
16 year old gold cycle?
Where did that come from Northstar?
It is a 30 year old commodity cycle (2000-2013) with a 15 year old half cycle correction (1985 and 2015)
We are 3 years into the move from the half cycle low in late 2015 however the USD is lagging, having topped in early 2017, so I am expecting it will take some time to progress the second half of the commodity cycle.
Time is the issue right now as it is far too early for an ICL so I would not get too concerned about price.
Gold will host an ICL in due course but there are ienough indicators to suggest it is far too early.
Thanks for pointing that out Norvast – just a typo. I’ve just been looking at the 3 year cycles as well. Clearly 3 doesn’t go into 16. Doh !
It is a 30 year old commodity cycle (2000-2030)….
Sorry about that my friend!
Too many good Aussie wines tonight plus some long days!
Lol. I think I need a beer tonight. Just goes to show it’s easy to type fast and not properly proof-read something before you hit ‘post’.
Northstar–I think that barring a real emergency (war, for example),cycles are largely immutable. Sooner or later they will express themselves (via price) more or less within their “normal” timing bands. And if just that is about to happen, wouldn’t the price by necessity have to look precisely like what you’ve drawn above? All I’m really saying is that if one were forced to choose to make investment decisions based upon cycle analysis or price charts, the price charts will conform to the cycles, and not vice versa. So unless we’re talking about short-term investing, then what Norvast is saying is as good as gold 🙂 As you’ve implied over and over, cycles add the context to interpret the charts.
Don’t go wobbly on me George!
And thanks NOrvast for the chill pill.
“The USD has printed a 3 year low at only 21 months…” Are you referring to Feb 2018? If so, how do we know it’s a 3 year low?
“…so once it hosts an ICH then it is down for a long time!” Could you explain the connection between an early 3y cycle low and how that implies a further down move for a long time. Or am I misunderstanding what you’re telling us?
Thank you.
Here is the link with an explanation..
https://goldtadise.com/?p=430578#comments
Normally cycles “balance” out in time so a shortened 3 year cycle has a reasonable chance of being followed by a longer 3 year cycle.
Thanks. When you say that it’s down for a long time, are you talking about the approx. 7 weeks remaining in this IC once it tops? Or are you saying that the ICH we’re about to have will be “the” high for years?
Oh no Curly Top I am talking about the remainder of the 15 year cycle which should end around 2023
There are 5x 3 year cycles within the 15 year cycle
The start of the 15 year USD cycle was the 2008 low and the Feb low was the 4th 3 year low (Mar 2008, May 2011, May 2014, May 2016)
So when the USD hosts a DCH/ICH soon that should mark the high between Feb 2018 and sometime in 2023 when the USD hosts the 15 year low.
Can you now see how significant this period is for the USD and gold.
Yes! Finally, I get the significance of the 3 yr cycle, and it being part of the 15, and it having begun in 08. That is very helpful. I use the daily and weekly and yearly cycles to help me but was kind of ignorant of the five 3yr cycles. Big picture stuff!
That should be a tremendous tail wind forcing the dollar down, beginning very soon, towards year 2023! Yep, that’s a long time.
(Does the fact that the 3 year cycle varies so much between even less than 2 years ong, and then stretched to 4 or more bother you?)
Oh and thanks again for taking the time to repeat yourself 3X. It’s very appreciated.
Ha ha, I was waiting for someone to pick up on my nervous stance. I’m very aware that few things in life (apart from death) are guaranteed. I like to keep an open mind and entertain the idea that I’m wrong. I believe Norvast is very likely right, and his cycle analysis is way better than mine. I can’t see how anyone can even begin to try to predict where the price might be heading, without considering the time factor in relation to cycles. Rambus is highly respected as well, and I believe his PM outlook is pretty bleak. Very interesting times.