Goldtent TA Paradise

Dollar Cycle

1. DanX says:

   June 19, 2018 - 7:51 am at 7:51 am

   There was a spike up in 1994, right before the rollover. From 80 to about 97, 17 points – roughly 20%. With another spike up a few months later (although this was the bottom and can’t be really compared). In any case, this shows that a hard move up at the cycle end is very possible. We can easily expect the same type of move which would give us a target of 103-106 right now. Testing the top and rolling over?

   We have 3 major events in the next 6 months, if all go well USD will fly:

   1. Merkel out in 2 weeks may potentially plummet EURO, she’s the only one who had some grip on how to hold everyone together (despite her other shortcomings)
   2. FED raising rates one more time
   3. Trump winning midterms

   This is what Im watching. There’s a potenital 4th – China and EU backdown on tarrifs.

   Just my two cents.

2. norvast says:

   June 19, 2018 - 8:23 am at 8:23 am

   The 3 year lows are Apr 2015, Oct 1998, Sep 2001, Dec 2004, Mar 2008, May 2011, May 2014, May 2016

   Now an explanation…on a monthly chart

   The last 3 year low was May 2016 after which the USD peaked in Jan 2017 and began it’s 3 year decline making lower lows and lower highs….until Sep 2017 when it hosted a YCL (yearly cycle low)

   The USD then advanced and peaked in Nov 2017 (confirming Sep 2017 as the YCL)

   It then fell and made lower highs and lower lows until Feb 2018

   Since then the USD has made higher highs and higher lows (along the way confirming Feb as the YCL)

   If it surpasses the Nov 2017 peak of 95.06 then it confirms that it has left behind the 3 year low based on the cycle premise that once a cycle fails and then goes on to print a new high then a new cycle has begun.

   I am expecting the USD to advance and form a left translated daily cycle over the next 2 weeks before declining and therefore confirm an early 3 year low has been left behind in Feb 2018

   We shall see…but there is plenty of downside risk for gold, CHF and AUD before the USD hosts a DCH/ICH

   At this stage I predict a “double bottom” similar to 2013 with lows next week and early Jul

   These situations present superb opportunities for the adventurous, both trader and longer term investor.

   I have my miners all lined up ready to go!

   • Fullgoldcrown says:

     June 19, 2018 - 8:29 am at 8:29 am

     USDX 95.26 presently….so there we go Norvast….thanks for your very important input at this juncture

3. DanX says:

   June 19, 2018 - 8:34 am at 8:34 am

   Yes, Im in agreement with you about USD top in the next few days to a week or so.

   My comment was more on what I expect after the weekly buttom that should come later this summer. In order for this to come to fruition it needs to climb high enough now so not too drop to far below ma’s during its bottom.

4. norvast says:

   June 19, 2018 - 8:36 am at 8:36 am

   Right now the most issue IMO is “when” will the USD host a DCH/ICH not how high will it go!

   I do not really care – sentiment at these occasions reaches all time lows with blood in the street.

   Gold, miners AUD and CHF are going to get smashed so, if you are still holding them (as I am), then brace yourself for some downside and prepare for the turn.

   Then buy!

   So let’s concentrate our thoughts on pin pointing the turn dates!

5. Curly Top says:

   June 19, 2018 - 8:38 am at 8:38 am

   Hi NS. Yeah the dollar candle on the 14th of June was unexpected. I thought we were already into our new dollar DC since “bottoming” on June 7. But maybe we just completed a 41 day DC and the new DC cycle began on June 15th. That would be the 3rd DC of this IC by my reckoning(so perhaps a weaker one overall). I guess we’ll have to see. Nevertheless, it would seem that the direction is UP!

   May I ask you though what practical difference it would make to your overall view of where we stand in the much larger commodity cycle if the dollar did go to 96-97 during this DC? I can’t see how that would invalidate your overall thesis.

   Also, with respect to the YCL this past February (and perhaps 3 year cycle), are you asking about it because you worry that the dollar hasn’t really risen enough since then given that these important lows are not far behind us and you feel another big upside surprise is in store, or are you pointing out that given these important lows behind us it’s really not so worrying to see this modest dollar strength at this moment. (My view is the latter fwiw.)

   Thanks.

   • Curly Top says:

     June 19, 2018 - 8:50 am at 8:50 am

     Hi again. When I was composing my comment to you there were no other responses here yet. Now I see many have weighed-in. Thank you Norvast. So helpful.

   • norvast says:

     June 19, 2018 - 8:50 am at 8:50 am

     The USD is currently in week 18 and on calendar day 4 of the daily cycle 4

     I expect this daily cycle to be left translated and fail, hosting a DCH between 11-16 calendar days from the 14 Jun DCL

     That leaves us plenty of time for more gold downside!

     • Curly Top says:

       June 19, 2018 - 8:55 am at 8:55 am

       OMG DC 4. Was seeing 3 with an extended 2nd. I like yours much better!

     • norvast says:

       June 19, 2018 - 8:57 am at 8:57 am

       The AUD hosted a DCL on 09 May and DCH 06 Jun = calendar day 28

       Initially I thought 09 May was the ICL but as we all now know the AUD has failed.

       Will it be left translated as you would expect at this late stage of the weekly cycle?

       That would mean the ICL = 09 May plus min 56 calendar days = 04 Jul

       Now we are cooking with gas!

6. KenS says:

   June 19, 2018 - 8:39 am at 8:39 am

   There have been way too many dollar bears of late. The trade has been too crowded. Mr. Market always inflicts the maximum pain to the most people. Based on sentiment I have been expecting a dollar rally. The cycles have been much too obvious and, you know the saying, “If it is obvious, it is obviously wrong.”

7. Northstar says:

   June 19, 2018 - 4:34 pm at 4:34 pm

   Thanks for all your comments. Very interesting. I’m uncomfortable here because the dollars descent from its 15 year cycle high is beginning to look somewhat different to the last 2 15 year cycles. I’ll be making more historical chart comparisons over the next few days, but I am getting pretty nervous here. I’m prepared for $1250 gold but much less and I’d have to consider the possibility of $1000 and HUI to 100 or less. I don’t expect any of that, but we’re getting close to some very critical support now, and it would be foolish to ignore the possibility.

   • norvast says:

     June 19, 2018 - 5:26 pm at 5:26 pm

     If we break 1237 (Dec ICL) I may have to rethink my strategy but right now I am comfortable.

     In the meantime just sit and wait for the washout and do not waste time getting nervous!

     We have another 2 weeks to go before the “double bottom” is in!