Goldtent TA Paradise

EU Sitrep

1. Dave says:

   June 18, 2018 - 10:44 am at 10:44 am

   Interesting, I think Merkel out is highly bullish EUR.

   • JenkinsLane says:

     June 18, 2018 - 11:20 am at 11:20 am

     Can’t see how. Merkel is the only real, elected, political force in the EU IMHO.
     If she goes, more likely entire EU project fails, not less, therefore less confidence in the
     long term viability of the EU.

     In addition, if Merkel goes you can absolutely forget about any further monetary policy tightening
     by the ECB IMHO. That alone will lead the Euro to dump and $USD to explode.

     • Dave says:

       June 18, 2018 - 1:26 pm at 1:26 pm

       With respect, this is all conjecture. As the odds of EU viability decrease, the EURO increasingly becomes a German dominated currency, reverting to the DM. This is bullish from my perspective, but just my opinion and worth very little. The charts will do the talking, not my opinions on politics or how markets will interpret political outcomes.

       • Dave says:

         June 18, 2018 - 1:30 pm at 1:30 pm

         But you may have more insight into internal ECB operations to back up “if Merkel goes you can absolutely forget about any further monetary policy tightening
         by the ECB”. I have no idea but I suspect there are much greater forces than Merkel arguing for monetary tightening and I further suspect that the forces that are rallying behind a rejection of her immigration policies may also hold more conservative positions on monetary policy. But again, just my opinion and I am certainly no expert or in a position to make definitive statements.

         • JenkinsLane says:

           June 18, 2018 - 1:43 pm at 1:43 pm

           Your points are fair enough.

           Only 2 weeks until we get some decisions either way.