Dow Gold Ratio : An Inconvenient Truth
Question : Is this ratio Not in a Bull market ?
Why do we think this is about to turn down right about now ?
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POSTING INFORMATION
I think you might be right. This ratio could well carry on trending upwards, but it doesn’t mean gold/miners have to fall. The numbers are key. The dow is 25000 and gold is $1280. If the dow suffers a setback and is still around 25000 next year, Gold at $1550 would still have this ratio above key support. $1550 gold could double or triple the miners.
Good Point Northstar….I can see that
No question. That’s why I use the old etf FSG = (UGL/SSO).
But … just because a trend is in place — which it is — doesn’t mean it WILL continue.
For that you need a sense of EXTREMES at which turns become more likely.
Fibs might be one way. But I prefer assorted others (charted on VLT timeframes, not even weeklies).
These are also telling me NOT to expect a LT reversal soon or even on the horizon.
Doesn’t mean gold can’t go up. Just means it won’t keep up.
This ratio bottomed in 1933 and again in 1980. It’s not due to bottom again until 2026-2027. The Dow is currently experiencing its second longest bull market in US history. If it keeps going for another year it’ll be the longest bull ever. If it does keep going higher it’ll likely be because the currency it is being priced in is falling, which means gold will be going higher too, but much faster, bringing the ratio down.
Gold wont begin a real bull until stock market peaks. At the same time, it may not make its next important low until the stock market peaks.
Its not starting until the Fed stops the rate hikes, which will happen when the market peaks and economy rolls over.
Thanks Jordan….that makes so much sense that its scary
🙂