Loading ...Bearishness
The level of bearishness out there is crazy…but let’s be real what do we know?
Cots are mixed.
Prices are testing/breaching support – so is low.
We are in a timing cycle for a low according to cycle analysis.
Gann cycle analysis (Norvast) is looking for a low not this week but the following week (give or take a few days I’m sure right?)
Chartology doesn’t look the best right now, but the technical ‘indicators’ what do they say? Well the churn for two weeks reset them slightly so the sell off Friday created obvious divergence – Bullish.
Sentiment is at Bends levels, that’s how deep it is. Can it still go lower? Of course it can, but the odds favour an upside resolution even if it’s an OS bounce.
Seeing SO many calls for sub 1000 gold. Sub 10 dollar Silver. It could do yes, but it won’t go straight there…markets never do.
Now the most important indicator: The Goldtent atmosphere indicator- tumbleweed. Twice a year without fail we get this…who bought in Decembers of years gone by?
Hey Waz…are you fading Goldtenters again ?
🙂
Good summary though
Hey Fully have you ever considered running some data analytics on Gold Tent activity since inception and chart it as a pseudo social indicator of market sentiment?
Would be an interesting exercise to get some basic metrics per week/month on rate of new members joining or even just new membership enquiries, post qty, reply qty, average post/reply qty per member, etc and see whether there is any correlation to markets.
Who knows but if a leading social indicator can be developed that can forecast upcoming changes in market sentiment this would be handy. Conducting periodic polls gives a snapshot in time but an ongoing chart would be better to view comparative change over time.
As they say it is always darkest before dawn or if you are a glass half empty guy it may be its always darkest before pitch black. Developing a visual metric of this sentiment would be quite interesting 🙂
Good synopsis Wazcam, yes sentiment is not good, which makes it perfect for the contrarian buyer!
I do think there is more pain to come though with GDX yet to fail – I expect to move lower than $22 before an ICL is hosted.
I also think the very earliest we can expect an ICL is the week beginning 25 Jun based on normal cycle counts so I would be holding off any purchases this week even though we may see some sideways price action.
The dates and chart pattern from Jun 2013 should act as a guide to the action over the next two weeks although I am NOT expecting the same level of price drop as experienced in 2013. A simple “history repeats” exercise!
As you remind members these moves into an ICL can be drawn out affairs with some pain but knowing that a reversal is within reach you can line up those favourite miners or ETF’s on your BUY list and purchase them with a high degree of confidence.
These are the occasions we patiently wait for to occur – “time and price”