Loading ...Gold’s ‘Red’ Zone
Is fast approaching. It’s where support and resistance zones meet. The support and resistance lines in chart formations are quite frequently breached, temporarily. False breakouts, or breakdowns as they’re sometimes called. I prefer to visualise support and resistance as zones, with the very upper and lower boundaries of these zones marking the most up to date, known position of the final ‘lines in the sand’. Surf has a very good, possible bull flag forming under the ‘neckline’, which is building in my chart below in, and just below, the turbulent upper zone, where you tend to get lots of short term chopping and changing of direction. Anyway, here’s the chart, and yet another way of looking at it. I hope it helps.
Surf also thinks it is likely that after a DCL shortly the USD will break higher into a ICH (weekly cycle high).
If so then this current daily cycle in gold will be left translated and fail.
01 May left behind a failed daily cycle so every chance the next one will roll over reasonable quickly after the USD hosts a DCL and commences it’s next daily cycle.
Thanks Norvast. Sounds like a drop below $1300 is likely then. I’d expect $1290 region to hold. Anything below that (for any length of time) and the gold bull case begins to fall apart.
Beautiful charts you make Northstar. Thank you. Combined with the daily and weekly cycle count, and the overall long-term commodity cycle, I feel like we have a wealth of info.Thank you both very much.
Thanks CT. I bow to Norvast, Surf and others for shorter term cycle analysis. I’ll stick to trying to visualise the bigger picture and put things in context, with supporting evidence. Between us all here, we’ll hopefully spot the twists, turns and trend changes.
NS: FWIW, the count I’m following gave me a sign today.
It is that we are in a C wave down to complete this correction. We have completed 3 waves so far…as of today it looks like the 4th was completed at the 38.2% fib of the whole recent leg down. This is also the down trendline. That’s another EW sign of a 4th wave done. If so we are now in the endgame.
5th wave down and then we see. Will we have to take all of that as a (1) or I’m leaning more to take it all as a C to complete (2) and we will then be set for the next third wave up!
Sir Waz …you have drifted over to the Elliot Camp I see. Don’t forget your chartology
🙂
Never Fully…I think it is consistent with this low being the top of a Head, I really believe this consolidation isn’t a flag as people are peddling, but will in hindsight more resemble an IHS. A IHS, under a neckline of an even larger IHS. We are close from a cycles and EW point of view which is helping me with my view.
I just identified a small rising wedge today which reversed Gold from up 5 bucks to neutral on the day. I’m a chartist at heart but love confirmations from other valid sources! 🙂
I think the EW methodology should compliment the chartology. Like computer models in meteorology, they can give differing views on the future. That doesn’t mean there is anything wrong with either method, just that there is no fool proof way of seeing into the future. When they are pointing towards the same outcome it just allows us to have much higher confidence levels.
+1