On the weekly line-chart below, $USD looks like it just completed its annual cycle low, while finding support at its 7-year trendline.  Please correct me if I’m wrong – but gold moves according to dollar based currency moves – not the other way around – and it certainly doesn’t look like the $USD is now going to start heading lower in earnest…

Chartology-wise, the $USD has just completed pt. 6 of a megaphone, or expanding triangle pattern, indicating the half-way point of a much larger move higher.  Please correct me if I’m wrong, but only a breakdown of the rising (green) 7-year trendline would signify otherwise – either by making a quick “U-toin”, or otherwise after the $USD rises to the upper megaphone trendline to create a potential 7-pt reversal pattern.

Yes, the Silver COT report, fundamentals notwithstanding, and Bo Polny, etc., etc. and all that…

Of course, as an ardent silverbug I hope I’m wrong, but then as I recall…a wise man once said:

“Hope in one hand and crap in the other – and then tell me which one is more real.”

Update:

Let me add one more thing, that I think merits consideration that I didn’t mention above – and that is sometimes pms will move in tandem with the $USD.  For example – when we add $silver to the chart above we can see that silver derived no meaningful benefit from the falling $USD over the past year (very frustrating) as one might expect – so perhaps $silver will now zag instead of zig – by moving higher in tandem with the $USD?

Watch RTV confuse himself in real time!  …oh well – I’ll maintain a core position and refrain getting too highly leveraged until it all makes more sense to my limited brainpower…