On Hold
My overall ‘big picture’ view hasn’t changed (dollar down, PM’s up into 2026). What cannot be denied though is that the dollar has found support and bounced right off it to the upside (see chart). Short term that isn’t great for PM’s. I’ve got a few charts here for you to ponder. I’m less confident with cycle theory on shorter timescales, with various elements of ‘left translation’ and ‘right translation’ in play, which basically amounts to a shortening or lengthening of timing bands. I don’t really want to make too many comments on this until I’ve had time (pun intended), to read up some more. People like Norvast, Surf are much more up to speed on this, but I’ll gradually work on learning the theory.
Makes me wonder what’s going to happen with the FOMC meeting, interest rates, bonds and the broader stock market. I’m in the camp that believes we’re not quite done with the rising stock market yet. Short term, I think more pullback is quite possible, but I’d expect another large advance before some kind of real crisis develops, and we’re a few years away from that still (in my opinion).
P.S. I got a free barchart.com account so that I could access dollar data going back further.
Thanks Northstar
The 4th chart is the one that keeps me cautious
Me too. Until it breaks down we won’t really see the PM’s doing too much.
NS
Sounds prudent follow the trend?
FYI
Been looking at 2005 for answers it’s an interesting year. IMO start of the “Real” 2001-2011 Bull $USD & $WTIC both began rising, $GOLD & $Silver flatlined then spiked upward near year end and out paced the $US. $UST 10-2 Yield spread dropped below 1%. Bush got 2nd term, War in Iraq escalated.
IMO the spark that lit the PM Bull was Bush Iraq speech Oct 5, 2005. Plain as day in the normal charts (slaps you in the face on the $GOLD*DXY).
Geo Politics mixed with Economics?
Thanks Red. I often wonder which comes first, the chart action or the politics/economics. Often, a spark is all that’s needed, but the chart cycles display such regularity that it seems almost not to matter what happens in the ‘real world’. The chart action just plays out regardless. I think the fundamental picture does matter, but the charts are constantly reflecting that and signalling where we’re going (if you can master the knack of interpreting them).
*Oct 6, 2005