Hello everyone, 1st post….

Not even sure why I bothered to sign up here, except maybe to stir up trouble.

I used to be a gold bug. I used to be convinced the end of the world was nigh.

In early 2005 I invested everything (a relatively paltry amount I’m sure, compared to a lot of people here) in gold coins and gold miners. Gold was around $400 oz. I rode that bull to the 1900 top and beyond, finally cashed out well past the big gold chart breakdown below 1550.

Remember that day in April? I do. I remember the gap down open in GLD. I remember waiting for the backtest gap fill that never came. I remember that 48 hours later, gold had dropped $200.

Still, all in all, I did okay — eventually cashed out at pretty much today’s prices, which tripled my investment in less than 10 years. Rolled that into real estate in hot US markets, and tripled that investment again.

But at the end of the day, I would’ve been much, much, MUCH better off buying Apple stock in 2005 for $5 a share. Closing price today: $176 and change.

Gold and real estate: 9x.  Apple: 34x.

 

 

Meanwhile, these days, I look at a monthly gold chart, and my thought is… so what?

 

Yes, a potentially massive cup and handle is developing. However, it could still take years of chop and grind to develop and actually break out to new highs. There seems to be a lot of excited anticipation about a break out of the triangle, a break above 1350. As if that means anything.

To me, it’s just….  so what.

I will bet anyone here a case of bananas that there’s a concrete ceiling of resistance at gold 1550. Price is going to chop and grind and backfill between 1550 and 1350 for months — or years — before eventually (maybe) advancing into the next congestion zone between 1550 and 1800. And then how long till all that overhead resistance is worked through? Until gold finally — finally! — breaks out into new highs and blue sky?

And the gold miners…? Nothing at all to be excited about, imo. Give me a solid break out above that down trend line, and my senses will perk up. Until then…. dead money.

 

Meanwhile, here’s the monthly QQQ — the leader of the current bull market in US stocks. Pretty sweet looking uptrend channel, if you ask me. Parabolic blow-off top? Not seeing it.

What I do see is that in 2015-16, price worked its way through the overhead resistance of the all time highs of the year 2000 top. And it’s really too soon to say for sure, but perhaps that resistance zone is simply the halfway point in time and price of the uptrend that began in 2009.

 

Value versus momentum — two very different, and valid, investment strategies.

But for those who are sitting in gold as it grinds and chops around, while hoping and praying for the unraveling of civilization that sends the price of gold to the moon….

I just don’t see how that makes any sense.