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Friday, January 12, 2018
US Dollar Index – Weekly and Daily Continuation
Support reset to 90.97. Resistance initially 93.50 then 94.30 plus/minus. The dollar today has traded under its previous September reaction low of 90.99 reaching 90.965 as noon is approaching. The higher of our 2 longer term downside targets does not appear so far off anymore—87.18. (The lower target remains 82.22). Both indicators are declining; maintain a lower outlook.
Gold – Weekly Continuous and Feb ’18 Daily
Support reset to 1300-1310 range. Resistance reset to 1355-1358. The market made a high on January 4th, a low on January 10th and then rallied into the close today on the 12th. The turns were ideal with respect to the shorter term gold cycles we had enumerated and illustrated. The 1340-1350 range was not reached however. There is enough activity on the rally to start focusing on the smaller waves. It would appear that the smaller 5th wave within larger wave-3 will be 61.8% of smaller waves 1-2-3 at 1354.3 which will coincide with larger wave -3. Don’t place too much on the foregoing as our more important focus is on the weekly chart and the 2 levels cited: 1358.50 and 1377.50.
Does that mean he has been talking shit for 45 years or actually knows what he is talking about?
Why the disrespect Norvast ?
Obviously boobooman would not post this work if he felt it was not from a worthwhile analyst.
Comments like this will deter a poster from participating here.
Do you have a comment on the TA or are you just in a foul mood ?
With all due respect Fully, talk about the pot calling the kettle black.
I guess norvast is maybe tired of seeing everyone and his brother appearing now, as I am, talking about how they see the US dollar go down and gold go up, and that they have seen this coming. Where were they 4 months ago? 8 months ago?
And another thing norvast might be thinking about here is, when one posts something from another poster/writer then it is reasonable that one also states what one thinks oneself about it. And maybe also have a few sentences about the persons track record included. Just posting the article, or even better, only the link to the article, does not say that much really.
Absolutely nothing against you here BooBooMan of course or anyone else here, just one of my many general opinions on how we can create more value here.
Not everyone can be correct at major market turns G! Great work and love your charts keep it up! I think the bear market is still fresh in peoples minds, hence why there may have been skepticism?
Wondering if I could get your thoughts on a comment I posted above:
I see commericals adding shorts here. I personally as mentioned in a post before, think we will dip heads above the neckline briefly (Intraday?) just to suck in some late comers, before (to combine with cycle analysis) we head into a DCL, buying opp imminent peeps! Next week could be a week we find a top before heading down for the 7-10 days post, before the fireworks really start.
Could coincide with Dollar heading lower, backtesting support, now resistance? Thoughts.
Agree, and, I think that is why we got, and get, all the FBOs/around the apex moves I predicted months ago – the majority did not understand where the US dollar was going.
I think my take is pretty clear in this recent post:
https://goldtadise.com/?p=420102
Graddhy…I watched from a far since late 2016. You put yourself out there and I was right there with you. I believed in your work. It seemed to me you took a lot of flack because people have their book and didn’t want to believe. I do not think it was personal… though there may have been a few personal comments. But it wasn’t because of you…I believe it was your position which opposed theirs.
I love this site and everyone who comments. But I must say you are my favorite and why I keep coming back. I have held back from stating that but there it is and the truth.
The dollar has dropped and commodities are shaping up really well. Your road maps are just brilliant.
Take satisfaction in the fact that you put it out there. Everyone deep down knows even if some may not give you credit. You really held your ground when a very good many challenged your entire work.
You will have the last laugh. Perhaps you can chuckle inside rather than out loud. Keep up the phenomenal work!
I hope you are right about it all not being personal. And if it was because of that my position opposed theirs, I guess they are in the wrong place as different positions is what a forum partly is about.
Thanks SM.
Graddhy: I’ve been most gratefull for the enormous effort you’ve put into charting the Dollar and Gold, AND that you’ve been correct! I should have been posting comments on your work to let you know that.
Forgive my oversight, but I assume the members of this forum only post their own opinions and that of others whom they know to be worth considering. I foolishly assumed that I’d be given that benefit of the doubt.
To know what a poster thinks of a trend in any market one only needs to read an archive of that member’s posts. It’s not that hard to do, though it does require more effort than immediately insulting them.
Good points. In general, I agree.
Although, I do think a comment of what oneself thinks is in order when external work is posted. But that´s just my thinking.
Looked at the links you posted below, good stuff.
This comment is pure bullshit Graddhy
“I guess norvast is maybe tired of seeing everyone and his brother appearing now, as I am, talking about how they see the US dollar go down and gold go up, and that they have seen this coming. Where were they 4 months ago? 8 months ago?”
Who really cares bout calling Gold higher and Calling the dollar Lower 8 Months ago.
Those who have positioned themselves in PMs within the last month are doing as well or BETTER already than those who saw this coming 8 months ago.
The breakout is potentially happening Now in Gold ( good enough bet for me)…although it has not yet really happened !
You love to clam you called the bottom in Uranium …..but neglect to comment that you never advised selling as the U stocks did a U turn and crashed back to where they began.
This may be happening yet again….Being First to call a bottom does not mean you will have the biggest profits going forward….that’s for sure.
My point is there is nothing wrong with any analyst who sees a trend change but waits for confirmation.
Any analyst who says Today that they see Gold going up is still very early to the game. Calling a Bull Market before it actually is one is a fools game IMO.
You want to be the ONLY one to have seen this Bull coming ? You are NOT….we have had many here ( not I) but many who have predicted a gold bull beginning right about now….None of them are soliciting accolades for being first and best in class as you certainly are….they just present their work and some receive comments and some do not.
Notably we have Northstar , North , Gabe , NickG, Dave, Plunger, Rambus , Surf City , Spock , and others who have been bullish for long enough.
Personally I started to buy back Rocks I sold in Sept 2016 ….starting in November 2017….Again my point is…You had conviction of a Bull in Gold over a year ago and I have conviction NOW….who will make the most of it ?
ME ME I will…nya nya nya nya on you Graddhy. I might even reverse myself if gold starts to balk here and drops..I know that’s wishy washy…the best analysts have conviction and stay LONG all the time…there is only one way and that’s UP…anyone who sees up then down then up again is a fraud ! Right ?
Holy Crap ….You resent any analyst who has become bullish on Gold lately ? You think they are a fraud because they were not bullish 4 months ago >? That is Nuckin Futz.
You have picked this fight so now you have the punch in the face you so deserve.
I haven hear from Norvast yet but I would be surprised if he actually too resents anybody who recently became bullish…..I am glad boobooman has responded below however.
I am a little tired of taking you Holier than thou posters on by myself.
sheesh squared
PS…I just read Mortdiggiddy’s call for a Silver Bull…just today….he called it…..he is a new guy here….do you include him as a Jonny come lately to be diminished because he wasn’t here …is his piece included in your and Norvast’s resentment for those who didn’t see a bull 8 months ago but do now ?
You are rambling Fully, and as always, you are recycling things, again.
What on earth do you know about my profits really? What are you rambling about.
I do not resent anybody, what is that pure crap you are writing.
I have not picked any fight, that is for sure. You have come on to me for over a year now and I have tried to handle it the best I can. You have behaved like an ass and a bully to be honest.
Not a single thing is correct about much above really, i.e. you say that “You had conviction of a Bull in Gold over a year ago…”, well, I called the bear market bottom in gold back in Feb 16… You are a master at twisting things.
And, again…, I am not running a trading service here at GT. If readers here buy when I call the bottoms it is up to them when they sell.
With all the rest you say above I can´t be bothered anymore. You thrive on this, I do not.
Can add though that I actually think that you are doing a very good job as a moderator on the whole. But it would be even better if we stop going after members.
I called out Norvast on his disrespectful attack on booboomans post…..and you took up Norvasts defence…saying you are both tired of analysts coming out bullish and saying they were all along…turns out boobooman’s friend has a track record and it is stellar…you needn’t have stuck your nose in this…norvast was out of line…he is a big boy…he can speak for himself. I also don’t appreciate the patronizing comment above…its more nonsense.
Alright, again…, I have absolutely no resentment towards anyone seeing a bear in the US dollar or a bull in gold/silver now. Of course not.
What I wrote above was that I have a problem when writers say that they have seen it coming all along when that was clearly not the case.
Clearly this writer saw it coming…so what the F are we talking about then….show me someone who has posted here that he saw a gold Bull Coming who did NOT !
Personally I am still not sure this has legs but I’m willing to place a bet.
Fully, I did of course not straight up defend norvast in saying those things the way he did. I just tried to interpret him a little.
And well, maybe I had no business commenting in this post to start with. But if so, I think we need to lay down the rules for when one is allowed to comment and when one is not.
OK Rule Number 1 !
Post with Respect !
Rule numbers 2 thru 12….read rule 1.
Rule number 13….we don’t need no rules …99% here get it.
Norvast: Thanks for your kind and considerate remarks. Your mother would be proud.
Why yes, I only post chartwork from know-nothing dipshits who are continuously wrong, broken records, just waiting until the fire has been put out and then ask to drive the engine in a parade.
In case you missed this he called the September 2017 high in gold TO THE VERY DAY!
https://goldtadise.com/?p=411066
In case you also forgot this terrible call of his back in March 2017, pull up a chart of the US Dollar Index and compare its downtrend with the timing of his March 28th article on the same. (In your comment you praised him then, but curse him now?)
https://goldtadise.com/?p=399385
And Fully is absolutely correct: anymore such gratuitous nastiness and rudeness and this forum will have heard the last from me.
norvast,
Let me make this easy for you: we ALL say things we wish we hadn’t. I certainly have. And it’s usually on a bad day when we have a “pickle juice” attitude. If in retrospect you wish you’d been more civil just say so.
I’m NOT one to hold a grudge – especially when in the past I’ve done the same thing.
I respect your work and always desire peace. (Romans 12:18.)
You are a class act Boobooman….we can’t expect everyone to be I suppose….dead silence !
Graddhy wrote: “…I have absolutely no resentment towards anyone seeing a bear in the US dollar or a bull in gold/silver now. Of course not.
What I wrote above was that I have a problem when writers say that they have seen it coming all along when that was clearly not the case.”
But my friend DID see it coming – more than NINE MONTHS ago. It would be perfectly legitimate to ask when if one didn’t remember my posts where he clearly said the US Dollar was going down. What isn’t acceptable is to assume the worst and presume that I posted “shit talk”. Those attitudes and behavior can destroy a forum.
100% !
I absolutely agree with what you say towards the end of course.
However, just so we get this right here, my first comment at the top was not towards your article, it was meant to be general. But maybe that was not crystal clear by me.
The second comment I made above on this, the one you quoted here, was also meant in general. Fully made a wrong claim before that and I just replied to that.
And yes, your friend did see it coming, which we saw in the links you posted here later on. And, I also commented on this with “good stuff” above.
Hope we cleared this up now.
Graddhy,
In your first post above you wrote these words (all CAPS mine): “I guess norvast is maybe tired of seeing everyone and his brother appearing now, AS I AM, talking about how they see the US dollar go down and gold go up, and that they have seen this coming. Where were they 4 months ago? 8 months ago?”
I took it the only way I or any reasonable person could: it was CLEARLY directed at my post. Instead of piling on, why didn’t you simply ask where my professional friend was four or more months ago?
I would have ignored Norvast’s insult and immediately posted links to the prior posts of my friends work.
His calling THE top in Crude Oil in the summer of 2008 AND his bottoming call within 40 points of the low in the SPX in late February 2009 was incredible. I have the files as PDFs to prove it if you’d like to see them.
And no, I don’t hold any grudge against you either.