Loading ...Gold Blow Off Tops
Been doing reading over last couple years (Don’t claim to be an expert just my observations). Bretton Woods forward the rest is ancient history useful but too far in the past IMO.
Modern Gold Bull Markets in the US – there have only been 2 each lasting 10 years each ending in a blowoff top 1972 -1983 and 2001 – 2012 respectively.
What starts a Gold Bull well that is hard to say but 70’s was caused most likely by Gold price being held at $35 for 40 years and in 2001 started probably by Bullion Banks messing with shorts via Spot Gold at $300 for 20 years and eventually finding themselves on the wrong side of the trade saved by the BOE Brown’s Bottom.
What causes a Blowoff Top Inflation and Physical in your hand demand by the public. Public investment in physical Gold bury it in your backyard type buying………!
So what happens after a Blowtop? Well all we have to look at is the 80’s that’s it, is it relevant? So that’s where I’m at looking at 6 – 7 years after a blowoff top. What do I see but minor bull ripples from the blowoff. Where are we at exactly I’m not sure? Can Bullion Banks repeat what they did in the 80’s for 20 years? The ECB is willing to do whatever it takes apparently and same with the FED? Does PBOC really want to break up the party a just get a seat at the table?
I lived thru both Blowoff tops and can”t say either of them were enjoyable. What will the Third top look like if/or when it happens?
The big difference now to anytime in the past is that thanks to globalisation and technology, everything is now connected up. A banking crisis in one major economy can start a global chain reaction. That’s why Germany and the ECB we’re so determined to bail Greece out. Multiple times. They now have a debt (like most developed countries) that can mathematically never be paid back (unless we descend into hyper-inflation). It’s a gigantic, very dangerous, steaming pile of turd. If the powers that be ever lose control of the game, we’re all going to pay an enormous price. Physical gold is an insurance against all of that. Mining shares are a bit of a gamble, but I’m attracted to this sector because it is so beaten down.
I hear you Red
You mean like this ?
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD&p=M&yr=50&mn=0&dy=0&id=p04601710113&a=532873781
Red great observations – Northstar and Fully I share your replies and concerns – also throw in resource limits and continuing climate surprises (Puerto Rico, Houston Florida, Portugal …..) I worry for my grandchildren
What I’m also working on is a continuation of the manipulation theory (nothing new right). I’m concentrating on the fact the manipulation is not random, it has a purpose.
The purpose in my theory is currency stability in the environment of Fiat expansion. To make this happen all the players at the table have to have the same endgame. If you know the endgame ie Spot Gold price you can identify Overbought Oversold conditions in the market IMO. Bretton Woods never ended the $35 price just changed methodically and rationally through both the Bull Markets of the 70’s and the 2000’s and was held constant at $300 between 1980 and 2000. What caused both the Blowoff is Physical Buying by the public and Speculators when inflation begins to occur in the economy.
My theory is Central Banks don’t bid up Spot Gold they try to maintain it at a mutually agreed price. If you can accurately predict the price target you can trade the market and also identify Blowoff tops.