For anyone betting on gold/PM’s/commodities going down, and inflation staying low over the coming years…

This isn’t just a pretty pattern. It’s a very long established, predictable, reliable currency cycle. The dollar cycle is key to where we’re going in PM’s and pretty much everything else. I fully understand the fact that the Yen/dollar ratio is a better fit with gold price movements, BUT, as an overall road map, it’s true to say that the gold price does not reach its peak at the same time as the dollar. There is an inverse relationship. Gold price highs in the 80’s, 90’s and more recently 2011 all coincided, roughly, with the dollar being at low points in its 15 year cycle. Bearing that in mind, and however you slice it, we are now past the peak in the current 15 year dollar cycle, and the targets over the next 6, 12, 18 and 24 months are all progressively lower. My guess, or estimate, is that we’ll plunge to somewhere between 50 and 75 in the coming 2 years, then a down-sloping range until the mid 2020’s. Overlaying the gold cycle on this will give us a target date for a peak in gold. It could be mid 2020’s but ‘right translation could take us into the late 2020’s. What is happening today/this week/this month is noise in the overall trend.

I like the fact that there are a lot of ‘worried’ posts appearing. We can’t do any of this without the ‘wall of worry’. If we’re feeling it, the big fund managers will be too. One step at a time. bullish wedge breakout – check, $1300 breakout – check, back tests – needed, followed by a much larger surge on high volume. If you’re betting against these developments, you’re betting against this…

Could this all important cycle just break ? Yes. Pretty much anything COULD happen, but just how likely would it be ? How could it be achieved, and what would it cost ?