Loading ...Usd/jpy
I think your best chance in this market is to follow the usd/jpy pair and use it to trade gold (if you are truly just trading). The moves are much cleaner and predictable. I went into JNUG when I posted this wedge in usd/jpy a few days ago and how we needed to come down once more:
I switched to JDST once we made a lower low in usd/jpy this morning. This is what that looks like now:
It will likely stall at the upper trendline but it should break after that since this is a bullish formation and the typical amount of trendline hits has occurred. This leads me to believe we have significantly more downside in gold. The cot has been incredibly bearish on the dollar so the bounce should be significant imo. But again, I flip flop as much as Eagle based on the charts:)
I think the spike high and reversal in Euro is significant, after all we had an impressive rally in the Euro, some see it as $ weakness, but there were too many bears on the Euro beginning 2017 and maybe all are long now. So it could be time for a reversal in the Euro.
I believe Gold will go to lower trendline on monthly time frame towards 1200-1220 in 4/8 weeks. Gold stocks will crash as everybody will panic out. This will be the bottom. After that gold 1400-1500 will follow. Maybe I am too bearish as several timing analysts see low in gold stocks next week(s), but maybe that low will only be a temporary low. But based on cycles both the Euro and Gold need a break and $ should rally. Remember what happened in November after the failed trump spike in gold!
The cots in euro and the dollar were at extremes and I think it will take more than a few days to nietralize. Like you, I also think we make one more lower low before we take off but so do a lot of people… so not sure where the surprise will be. Seasonality is also not in favor of the bulls right now.
This life as a “flip flopper” is tough…