Loading ...What’s Going On Here ?
Everybody has an opinion . Things are just plain weird in the PMs.
The US Dollar surprised me by unambiguously breaking down !
Graddhy called a false breakout in the Dollar and after a long tortured ride where even he called multiple times for a breakdown….finally it did .Kudos to Graddhy for seeing this and being persistant.
Weekly
However One would think with this Dollar breakdown PM Stocks would be Smoking …but they are conspicuously uninspired
Which leads me to wonder if this is another falsey…a false breakdown.
Monthly
This is a striking fractal if I do say so. !
And what about Commodities….If the Dollar is “toast” the Commodities are Hot….Right ?
Well….yes and no.
This is the ETF that tracks the CCI ( which is basically the old venerable CRB Index)
Maybe basing but not taking off…that’s for sure
THE NEW CRB ( JUST BACKTESTING A BREAKDOWN)
But then there are Building Materials ETFs
Concrete ( on the verge !)
Lumber ( smoking !)
Steel ( not impressed but may be getting ready for a big move in a year or two)
Then the 2 Biggies : Copper and Oil
Copper ( Very Bullish OR Very Bearish )
Oil ( lots of ways to read this…here is one)
If Commodities are breaking out….the Commodity Currencies should be as well.
Canadian Dollar…( wow ….perfect backtest…will this too Be a false breakdown ?)
Aussie Dollar ( meh !)
So what can we take away from these charts ?
To me it looks like we are still in a trading range in the Dollar and Commodities are NOT breaking out as a whole
This Dollar Breakdown looks very Positive for them but so far its just one Big Yawn.
…………………..
What about Precious metals ?
If we are ready to Rip …
Platinum will lead Gold ! (zzzzzzzzzzz)
Silver will Lead Gold ! (zzzzzzzz)
Gold Stocks will Lead Gold ( maybe but nothing imminent)
Well this is a long convoluted way of getting to the point isn’t it ?
Here is the point…and I really hope this is wrong BECAUSE If is right a lot of us will not be around for the next great Gold Spike, because you will have either given up or be dead.
WHAT IF ?
sheesh
After the BO in the Euro I’ll be surprised to see the dollar best 103.82 anytime soon. God help us all if it does.
Commodities have been waiting for the AUD to host an ICL (after 3 failed daily cycles) and it now appears that occurred on 09 May.
Meanwhile the large diversified miners like BHP.AX and RIO.AX appear to have had an ICL on 05 May the same day as Oil hosted an ICL
If I am correct this will imply that gold has entered another weekly cycle as of 09 May and we are currently seeing a half cycle correction.
I must be the only member that follows the AUD but I am sure the CAN is doing much the same for those members who live in the northern hemisphere.
I also expect stocks (SPX) to endure a left translated weekly cycle through to an early Oct ICL, another reason to be feel comfortable about gold.
Meanwhile the USD could continue to fall while stocks move sideways.
See My last chart Sir Norvast…..see you in 2032
🙁
Based on my pesonal long term Dow/Gold ratio (revision to the mean thesis) – The comparative year to current I believe is 1977 not 1983. It might not be available (at least it isn’t to me at the moment) but we might do a compare of some key current commodity charts above compared to 1977 (roughly .5 timeline) and then against 1983 (also .5 timeline), that might offer some clues where at and where we’re headed.
Yes, a decade or more of sideways consolidation May happen again. I think I posted a very similar chart last year sometime. The world has changed a great deal though. Its hard to imagine that much price stability in the metals for so long, given today’s monetary madness.
As I have stated in my two comprehensive posts on PM and general commodities, the charts need to be looked at very long term at major turning Points like we have now, in order to see the direct in motion:
https://goldtadise.com/?p=402797
https://goldtadise.com/?p=403102
In the first link above we also have charts for the Australian plus the Canadian dollar.
As for the relationship charts, platinum/gold reflects econ growth more than gold bull IMO, and the silver/gold chart and XAU/gold charts look massively bullish to me (must be the tint of my glasses)
Everything is going it’s own way, unconcerned about what other markets are doing. That’s the way it seems at the moment anyway. The PM stocks are the market to really watch over the next few weeks IMO. Huge breakout potential.