As you know, I am of the opinion that the PM bull resumed back in Dec2015/Jan2016 and that it is here to stay. To me, things are looking just fine in PM-land and most charts are looking clearly bullish. And since things are heating up I thought it was time for a big picture look at PM. These are my very own PM roadmaps.

As with my comprehensive post on commodities last week, linked below, focus for this big picture post on PM is on traditional TA combined with long term cycles. This because I think we are at a major inflection point in the commodity and currency markets right now and without looking at also cycles it is easy to get lost at these major turning points as I see it. At major inflection points it can be extra hard to determine if some charts are bullish or bearish just by doing traditional TA, that is where the longer term cycles come in. See for example the first three charts in my massive post on commodities posted last week, linked just below.
Do check this post out also because of the $CRB charts in this post.

And about the cycles used, below I have borrowed a paragraph from my mentioned massive commodities post as it applies here too:
“I have used the 15 year commodity cycle on most charts. Sometimes I will use the half 15 year cycle, i.e. a 7-8 year cycle, and sometimes I will use the quarter 15 year cycle, i.e. 3,5-4 year cycle. Also, I see it as the 15 year cycle does not have to be exactly 15 year in order to fit the overall commodity cycle; it can be one to two years longer or shorter also in order for me to accept it as the 15 year commodity cycle.”

And it´s worth mentioning here once more where I stand with regards to the deflation / post bubble contraction issue. I will make it easy for myself here though and quote myself from the post linked below:
“As I have said, I of course see the bullish scenario for the US dollar and I follow quite a few of those charts also. And I of course see the heavy deflation / post bubble contraction scenario, in fact, and as said, I was the biggest advocate for that scenario 1,5 years ago here. I then posted a huge number of charts for that case, including many charts for $USD going to 120 and beyond. Since the PMs resumed its bull market though back in Dec15/Jan16 I do not see this happening, I do not see it the charts and not fundamentally. It will come but not now as I see it. What I see instead is a baby inflation bull, driven by commodities, as posted.”

Alright, as with my mentioned recent massive post on commodities, let´s start off with currencies. And as said, keep a close eye also on those cycles through out the post.

Below we have two 30+ year charts for EURUSD plus $USD. Since Stockcharts only has the data belonging to EUR going back I had to go elsewhere in order to find a chart with the data for both the EUR and the ECU. And since the conversion rate for EUR:ECU was 1:1 the chart below for EURUSD is perfectly valid.

When looking at that 30+ year EURUSD chart below, with two possible channel drawings, it is striking how similar it is to the commodity currency pairs that are included in my mentioned massive commodities post. That is very interesting in itself but what is more interesting is that the EURUSD has been in a bull market since circa 1985 while the commodity currency pairs has been it since circa 2001. This means that the EURUSD has been even stronger than the strongest commodity currency pairs. But does that really make sense? Yes and no. As I have said countless of times, and some here are now starting to use similar phrasings, the EUR and USD just happens (not really but you get my drift) to be on the opposite side of the most important currency cross there is. So, the fact that the EUR has been in a bull market for the last 30 years should mean that the USD has been in a bear market for the same period. And yes, surprise, look at that $USD chart below. There it is, a 30 year bear market with two massive bear market rallies during that time. And look at the 15 year cycle on both charts, they are both really picture perfect. And note that the last massive BMR parabola for $USD has just been violated; which happened when $USD on the daily gapped my three important lines I have posted on.

Next, we´ll look at the monthly charts for $EURUSD and $USD. I just love these two charts. I could talk about these two for days and days. Note that $EURUSD has broken up above its now support line and that $USD has broken below its now resistance line. These are my formations and I think they are dead on. Note also that the $USD at the same time broke below the dotted orange trend line which means that the much talked about large channel/rising wedge just blew out the door, as I see it. Also, the grey boxes shows how I see these charts developing, that is, I am looking for circa 1,40 on the Euro and circa 80 on the $USD/DXY, reverse symmetry style.

Alright, while we are at it, let´s look at the weekly for the two. As you can see, on the $EURUSD chart there is only the now support line for my gigantic 30 year channel. This is because there is no point in drawing in any other pattern because it does not really matter right now. I have been saying for many months that I am looking for price to get back over that line again rather soon, and now it is. Note that $EURUSD gapped its gigantic now support line and that it is now BT. The $USD chart here I have posted many times before and it really rocks. Just look at those trend lines. We did get a bullish engulfing last week but I think that means nothing at this point.

The movement for the Yen is important so next is the cross USDJPY below. The chart to the left is the very long term chart showing a massive decline with three Bear Market Rallies and a clear very long term resistance line. The chart to the right enlarges this long term resistance line as it sits today. Note that the last two 15 year cycles has been left translated, i.e. they turned down way before they reached the middle of the cycle. Also note that price turned down around when Nixon ended Bretton Woods 2 in 1973 (first step in ending it was in 1971). The USD was floating freely already in 1968 though as we know but this fx started to decline a while after that.

Also the movement of bonds is important. Three bond charts below. In short, it looks to me like we are looking good here. Note on the daily TLT that price has just made an around the apex move, gapping the triangle.

Moving on again now, to the metals and to the lead role in the form of $GOLD. Below we have two ultimate long term charts, one linear and one log. The third chart, to the far right, I have posted several times before and it contains the important trend lines. If one takes a big picture long term perspective, $GOLD is just fine as I see it.

Looking below at the other precious metal I will talk about here, $SILVER, we have two charts. One ultimate long term quarterly and one weekly. They are both pretty clear I would say. I for myself can´t get my head around how one can look at $SILVER long term and come to the conclusion that $SILVER is going down big time from here. That is above me really.

Next we have the important ratio SGR, or GSR if you prefer that one. I prefer SGR as it is going up when PM is rising, simplified. As you can see, we are looking simply fantastic.

In order to finish off the section on the metals, below I have included two important ratio charts I have posted before. They are looking brilliant.

Moving on to the miners. Below we have my two ultimate long term charts of the $XAU. They are stunning if I may say so myself and it seems like not that many have really looked at them because if they had, we would not see so many PM bearish folks. I hope you really look at these charts and if you do, do note the more than perfect cycles, what do they tell you..? What does the charts as a whole tell you..?

Next in line is $HUI. Below to the left we have an overlay chart with the Euro and $HUI showing the tight relationship between the two. Take note of this, then go back and check my Euro charts… And, once again, look at the cycles guys…they are once again picture perfect.

And below we have four other miner ETFs/indexes. It is pretty hard to claim in a serious way that they are looking bearish.

Below we have six individual larger mcap miners, leaders. Their charts would not look like this if $GOLD was about to sink like a stone, not a chance. And also, there are so many juniors that are looking fantastic, the same reasoning can be used there.

And let´s finish off with the ratio $XAU:$GOLD. Below we have two similar charts, one weekly linear and one monthly log. Both are bullish.

So, in sum, I believe that the EUR is in a long term bull market and that the US dollar is in a long term bear market. And as posted on a few times before, I believe the commodities in general is in a new 15 year bull cycle.

Have a look at this post and my recent Commodities 2.0 post. Note that many charts are in a 15-20 year strong uptrend; currency crosses, commodity stocks, commodity prices, commodity sectors et c. And some are in a very long term down trend; US dollar. Do not fool yourself and think for a second that that is a coincidence. This is long term cycles at work.

I dare to say that most charts in this post you will not find anywhere else really. Most of my very long term charts here are pioneering, as are the ditto charts in the mentioned massive post on commodities posted last week, linked at the top. And I will actually go one step further yet and say that I think that the charts in this post plus the charts in my massive post on commodities linked at the top, very well could become reference points going forward for how to look at these charts and the trend. Big, big words, yes, I know I know…, but I truly believe that.

One mistake I think most “professionals, gurus and experts” do is not to incorporate longer term cycles into their traditional longer term TA charts, and in this case especially the 15 year commodity/currency cycle. If one does that for PM, the general commodities complex and for the important currencies, the trend becomes clear as I see it. Also, I believe that it is actually more or less impossible to have a real edge at a monumental shift in the PM/Comm markets, as I think we are having now, without incorporating the 15 year commodity/currency cycle. And if one finds the most correct TA chart patterns, these TA patterns and the cycles confirm each other and that´s how you navigate at monumental inflection points as I see it. Using just one or the other will not be enough as I see it. And, just to clarify here, with cycles I do not mean EW. But all this is just one man´s opinion.

One of many things I have been saying for a long time is that at some point, I think that almost everything will start to go up together, like a final asset inflation and debt/credit/QE cycle blow off. I am seeing signs now that we just might be there. I have also said that it would be very logical for me if SM had a blow off before PM. That might be starting now. On the other hand, there are large negative divergences building for SM so we just have to see on that one.

The $USD has turned on every major time frame as I see it; on my very long term quarterly (broken down from the BMR parabola), on my monthly (now below the now resistance line of my gigantic quarterly wedge), and on my daily (gapped my three important lines). The long term cycle is overpowering everything else there is.
I expect the daily $USD to roll over very soon and let go of my two h&s necklines. It has been BT my daily blue h&s neckline for circa two weeks now and will soon make another go at the slightly lower purple one I think.
But as said, there is a bullish engulfing on the weekly from last week. And, we could go down and test the support line for the large daily triangle on $GOLD but I do not think so looking at $USD at this point. If we do, it will be a brief visit.

Upcoming thin zones, which I have posted several times before a while ago, just pasted it here below:
$GOLD 1400 – 1540
$SILVER 22 – 28
GDXJ 50 – 153 (yes, that is wild)
GDX 30 – 40 (not much volume supply above 40 either so really all the way)
$USD 91 – 84
$EURUSD 1,18 – 1,32

As I said in the end of the mentioned massive post on commodities which applies here too; this is going to be the ride of our lives.

LINKS – Recent, longer and still very valid PM posts

Why the $USD has halted at this level:

My main posts so far on US dollar, $EURUSD/$XEU and $USDJPY/$XJY, with big picture charts:

Where we are going for the $CRB + $XAU:

$GOLD is leading the commodity complex:

$GOLD´s reversal patterns, short to ultimate long term:

$SILVER´s reversal patterns, short to ultimate long term: