Loading ...4 Scenarios – What Do You Think ?
I have the probability of imminent breakout (blue) at 20%, a small drop then breakout (red) at 50%, a big drop then rise and breakout (purple) at 29%, leaving a very small 1% probability of a return to the old lows or even less (black). I may be able to raise that last probability to 5% or so, if I hear a convincing fundamental case. I know Harry Dent has been calling for $700 gold for a while. What are your thoughts ?
Thanks Northstar. It could be any of them, but probably not the one back to $1000 and lower. There is too much uncertainty out there and in the UK people are buying record amounts of physical gold. Europe is a tinder box with the summer approaching. I can see lots of unrest with the right fighting the left (lots of potential civil unrest and terrorist attacks) and there are the bigger issues of NK and Syria not to mention Turkey, with their new shiny dictatorship, sorry I meant president! God knows what he is going to get up to but as with most of his kind at some point they turn to invasion to cover up the cracks.
Purple. Good Road map Nothstar
Yes, I’d give purple a relatively high likelihood, although, on balance (maybe wishful thinking), I give red a higher chance – I’m not sure how much longer we can go before something bad happens and sets a fire under the gold price – French elections, debt ceiling, North Korea, Syria, Turkey, Italy, Greece…it’s a long list of banana skins.
I’m on purple as well.
But THE breakdown that bulls fear most, comes after the breakout.
It will finally be Dent’s turn.
We BO up Monday then BT Tuesday and Wednesday.
There’s a decent chance of that happening. If not, we’re going to test $1240 and who knows, maybe $1150.
I believe we will post higher low in gold (green-purple scenario) in the next 4/5 weeks, but shares could be volatile again; Sentiment still too bullish in mining shares. Not to forget there will be a rate increase in June, so gold/mining shares could do nothing till end of May!!
Too bullish in the shares? Man, please spill some of the bullishness over to my side of the boat, will ya? Last time I got tanked like this is the decline from August – November…..
Maybe take a look at $BPGDM index, trading at 46, in December it was less than 10. I will get bullish once everybody thinking of sub 1000$ gold again and shares at December lows. We are still far above December lows!
NorthS, I bet you one T-Bone Roo steak gold jumps high Monday because the € will levitate http://www.forexlive.com/!/what-time-will-we-get-french-election-results-20170420
That’s certainly a possibility Matthew. I wouldn’t want to second guess the outcome though, let alone the market reaction to it. I was strongly convinced ahead of time that Brexit would happen, and that Trump would win, but the market reaction since has surprised me (I would’ve expected the dollar to drop much more and gold to rise more convincingly).
I’m in for the red line, too much resistance at 1250 range. Correct on still room in wedgie for some more squishism.
‘squishism in a wedgie’ – think we found a new trading pattern 😉