Loading ...Thinking Out Loud
IF gold fails to break out of its (usually bullish) symmetrical triangle, it will no doubt be accompanied by the dollar breaking out of it’s symmetrical triangle. If the dollar were to rise to the 120 target I’ve heard banded about, that would (in very simple terms) equate to gold in dollars being priced 20% lower. That would put it back in the $1050-$1100 ballpark.
I’m currently 70/30 in favour of gold up/dollar down (given what’s going on in Europe and the rest of the world). Sometimes feels like I’m frozen to the spot as a pair of headlights move towards me at 100 mph. These 2 charts are probably all you need to watch right now, and we’re getting closer and closer to a resolution with every passing day. If the dollar breaks up and gold doesn’t do the same (as some suggest it might), this could end badly for gold/silver and the miners. A rapid exit could be needed. The upside would be another brilliant entry point when the dust settles. Every cloud has a silver (and gold) lining. Stay nimble Goldtenters 😉
I want to believe it’s going up too. It’s going to need a decent catalyst to make the move. Considering the very strong correlation between Gold & USD/JPY I’m seeing an almost perfect cup & handle on the USD/JPY daily & weekly. Which is definitely not good for gold. Kind of confirms my gut feeling that the obvious move (for me – higher gold) is the wrong one. My $.02
Like you Nick, I’m still a little nervous. What will change that ? A close above the $1360-$1370 highs from last year will confirm this really is a new bull. Until we clear that hurdle, we could be bouncing around in a $1000-$1300 trading range for years – I don’t think that’s likely, but we need that final confirmation. I have a long position in the miners which I took out in Jan 2016 when the HUI was around 120, and I’ve traded in and out 2 or 3 times since – between 160 and 180, just to make sure I maintain at least some profit.