Same Old Same Old
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Give it a bit more time. The USD has rallied back up to my down trend line and stalled for now which is what you want to see.
The real impact of the no vote is on the Italian Banks which are some of the most under capitalized in Europe. The yes vote was needed to continue the state sponsored bailout efforts of these banks. The no vote puts a halt to the bailouts but the market needs to absorb the systemic risk this has exposed.
http://www.businessinsider.com/italy-banks-collapse-renzi-referendum-2016-11
One would think this was all priced in Surf
The No vote was a foregone conclusion
I agree there could still be some moves when the big boys return to their desks
For now its mute
Will create a series of bull flags on the way up on the hourly charts, wait till the am…
Fully, ye of little faith
Fully, have you been hitting the Doggie Downers lately? Sheeesh…..
Taking the emotion out may help, relax a little.
My modelling shows a couple of down days for the SPX before a “bounce”, maybe investors thinking this may be another BREXIT, but then rolling over quickly to much lower levels until around 19 Dec
Gold should move higher.
I have some support at 2169 so I am thinking a bounce from there to around 2191 and down from there. Anyway just thoughts
The SPX “bounce” should end 08 Dec
08-19 Dec will be down days for SPX and up for gold
Do you see a big flush down into the 19th Dec? Thx
This is only the first cycle from the 04 Nov ICL for SPX
If this next IC (18-26 weeks) turns out to be a left translated weekly cycle (like the last) there will be much worse to come!
We will not know that until after mid Jan but if it is (left translated) play golf and wait for the next ICL which I am suggesting will come around week 20 (21 Mar)
Time will tell of course!
You guys say you trade techs, and ignore FA. Yet, your frustration is all about the market not acting as you expected based upon your FA perspective. Think about that!!!
“We will not know that until after mid Jan but if it is (left translated) play golf and wait for the next ICL which I am suggesting will come around week 20 (21 Mar)”
My work isn’t nearly THAT precise. But I posted WEEKS ago, that my LT work suggests no final lows til spring.
I did have hints last week that a bounce might be near, but the indications were very weak and not corroborated by bonds, etc. Or equities topping.
I disagree with Avi on the critical importance of intermarket analysis. I rely heavily on it. Gold won’t bottom til equities top, and bond yields peak. I can look at a chart for XLU to tell me what PMs are doing. Its not always like that, but it has been for awhile now.
Sorry, that was meant in the main thread:
You guys say you trade techs, and ignore FA. Yet, your frustration is all about the market not acting as you expected based upon your FA perspective. Think about that!!!
I TRADE TECHNICALS ONLY…. BUT THE FA IS FRUSTRATING…THATS WHY I DONT TRADE IT.
I just ignore it! 🙂
….. said Armstrong all year long.
YES…ALL YEAR
THATS THE PROBLEM..HIS FOLLOWERS MISSED A $300 MOVE IN GOLD AND A 200% MOVE IN MINERS AS ARMSTRONG WAS BEARISH ALL YEAR.
NOT GOOD
By the time anyone had the sense to go long it was already chopping around sideways. For most people it was untradable, except from 1000 to 1200 in the first month. You enjoy that sort of chop? I personally don’t. And I wouldn’t recommend it to any retail person to try and trade that chainsaw.
I locked in 100% profits in August
There was no chop from Jan to June…just strait up
300 bucks in less than 6 months and Army’s Army missed it .
you da man!
Keep it simple, stupid!
20 Month EMA says SELL SELL SELL
😉
Nick – when did the 20 EMA say buy last winter? Was it timely?
My tools are pretty good, but I had to resharpen them after that bottom. (Although I called it a correction the whole time)
LT ma’s are more helpful on the sell side than they are on the buy side.
The one thing I’ve learned from my TA, is that you need different tools on the sell side than the buy side.
looking at Fully’s 20m ema chart it was February. That candle sliced above the 20m ema but I don’t know on what day. On nis chart the 20m ema wasz around $1180 ( interesting number, huh?) and by my chart below (link) that may have been exceeded on around 8 February.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD&p=M&st=2016-02-01&en=2016-02-29&id=p02097917506&a=312811263
Not bad. Not exactly at the bottom but not bad. Very good if you were a trader not an investor, I would say.
Pretty sure I’d wouldn’t sign onto that plan as a trader.
The 20mo MA is the mid bolly on a monthly.
On the sell side, that was only lost last month, four months off the highs.
Pretty much at the same level as the Feb buy. Leaving you empty handed for your risk exposure.
Worse if you waited til EOM for candles to lock in. Technically, monthly signals mean nothing until EOM.
Fully’s last chart of the 20m ema posted in reply to my request a few days ago showed the 20m ema was at $1238 when the price broke below it. Even an investor type could have therefore got in at $1180 and out at $1238 at a profit, even on this unusual short term reversal in the signal (Feb to Nov on a monthly chart is not long).
Fully’s chart was here from December 1, 2016 – 11:00 am
https://goldtadise.com/?p=388640
You boys must have serious mental constitution to buy and sell EMA crosses!! Big stops, whipped to buggery when it chops (otherwise how do you know which one is the mover?). I’ll stick with price action.
That 20 ema had you in at 300 out at 1600 in at 1200 and out at 1250
It is not really fast enough for traders as it is a monthly BUT for Investors who want a signal to buy and hang on its been great
IF this is a whipsaw like 2008 you will be back in at about 1200. You literally will not lose if you follow that 20 month EMA.