Loading ...Gold 20 Month MA
By special request from Daveinthe UK
You asked how this excellent MA looked at the close of the month ?
It Looks Dismal.
Using this MA as a Guide since 2001 has been 100% even in 2008 where there was a whipsaw which had you out then back in ..at the same level)
There may be a backtest and if you are still in get out there if you are lucky.
This chart says “what the hell are you doing still in ?”
Yep. Backtest of 1243 before next leg down is pretty much what i am looking for.
Thanks for the chart, Fully. Just as I thought it would look!
When you say, “If you are still in,” do you mean the whole PM complex including miners? What about core positions and stuff? I guess you mean as a long trader but then when is a trade an investment?
It’s all so confusing! Just like life.
I am looking way back on your chart and thinking, “I wonder is this is a bit like the temporary buy signal in 1999 on the Central Bank Gold Agreement (Washington Accord).” It appears that the market popped up above the 20m ema for a short while then went back below it until 2001 as gold went to retest the lows of that bear market. The the price pooped above the 20m ema in Sept 2001 and I bet that was the rise from $274 to $293 that happened after the 11 September 2011 attacks. That was an excellent signal of the effective start of the bull market in that case.
How does the 20m ema perform for the 1970s bull and the 1980s-1990s bear?
I didn’t mean to say pooped.
I am looking way back on your chart and thinking, “I wonder is this is a bit like the temporary buy signal in 1999 on the Central Bank Gold Agreement (Washington Accord).” It appears that the market popped up above the 20m ema for a short while then went back below it until 2001 as gold went to retest the lows of that bear market. Then the price popped above the 20m ema in Sept 2001 and I bet that was the rise from $274 to $293 that happened after the 11 September 2011 attacks. The 20m ema was an excellent signal of the effective start of the bull market in that case.
How does the 20m ema perform for the 1970s bull and the 1980s-1990s bear?/-
I got a 90 week ema chart from somewhere and it looks very similar. (20 months = 87 weeks, that’s why):
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOLD&p=W&yr=9&mn=0&dy=0&id=p75720988583&a=451090536
I note as of today 5 Dec 2016 that the 90w ema is turning DOWN.