Loading ...Follow People with Proven Track Records
Who are they? Rambus, Spock, Plunger, Surf, Avi Gilburt, and others on this site.
There are many with lousy track records. Avoid them. Of course you have to look at their track records to be able to tell who is who.
When people like Rambus, Plunger, and Spock speak, I listen. Why? Because they identified the last bear market in PMs and identified this new bull market.
I think Rambus was predicting 800$ for gold last year…….
Yes he did but he also quickly realized a major shift was underway by Feb 2016. I know because I am a subscriber. 😉
Yes he identified the beginning a new bull market in the first week of February.
Yes, and his realization of a shift, Surf, was just about the earliest that it could have been made. Spock and Mark were also very early in realizing a new bull market was underway.
Spock was the first person I came across. He posted a chart of barrick entitled “You’re going to short this?!?”. I closed my short position the following day.
Yes, Spock was very influential in making me realize that a new bull market had started.
Good man.
Yes he was looking for $800 Gold up until January This year
Rambus was Basically Bearish from Early 2012 all the way down to…Feb 2016 ( with a few short term bull trades along the way)
But the pattern changed…upside resistance began to crack and he quickly saw this
Became Bullish shortly thereafter .
What is the Most Important part of Analysis ?
Recognizing a trend change and being honest and nimble enough to change sides.
Like a mercenary …don’t be married to your position but Ride the trend for all its worth then be able to reverse on a dime .
His objectivity is why I am a subscriber.
Thus I shall remain a “soldier of fortune”…
2 types, approximately (may be more)
1) Issues pronouncements as if an oracle. Does not easily acknowledge error–seems to prefer to appear right over being right. Therefore is often wrong since is impossible always to be right.
2) Provides analysis, opinion–sometimes very firmly. Changes opinion, sometimes 179 degrees, almost instantly, in order to try to reflect emerging conditions of reality. Knows that by discarding error one comes as close as possible to being right as much as possible.
Type one is interested in appearing right. Type 2 is more interested in being right–and will therefore more likely be right.
Ultimately the analyst you have to depend on is yourself though. Good thing for this site to allow for self-development–thanks Fully.
(When I came to this site I was neg on the PM market. Then I saw Plunger’s stuff: even more neg than I. This looks right I thought. Then I saw him change almost instantly–not frivolously in the slightest, but with deep and subtle consideration. No smoke/mirrors/decrees, razzamataz, black boxes (not that proprietary black boxes can’t work). Stuff I could agree with in part or generally more or less totally, point for point, while testing against my own data and concepts. Others of course contributed, including the opposing opinions for me to bounce my ideas off silently. So I changed about 180 degrees too, and subscribed to Spock 6 months + 1 day ago. What luck! Thanks everyone!)
Good comments Karl
I will add a few more. First off we are all wrong from time to time, buts its important to be able to recognize and change.
I don’t think one should often offer “predictions” as they almost always turn out wrong or way short of the mark. What is helpful is identifying the trend and then finding a vehicle to ride it with.
Clearly the biggest killer is EGO. We have seen plenty of it. Whenever it starts being worn on ones sleeve its not long before that individual is no longer useful.
In USD perspective, these guys are great. Since our investments are USD denominated we have to consider other entry factors: oil price and fx.