Goldtent TA Paradise

inverse (reverse) head and shoulders have bullish breakouts 98% of the time

1. Karl says:

   June 25, 2016 - 8:57 pm at 8:57 pm

   Those who express blanket skepticism about TA, saying it’s all subjective hocus-pocus, and so forth, have their heads (at best) deep in the sand.

   Nevertheless, subjectivity and lack of rigor may affect the accuracy of results given for the predictive value of a given signal. One person’s (or one computer algorithm’s) head and shoulders, or falling wedge, and so forth pattern may differ from another’s. Even if it’s not a matter of whether one person allows (or requires) a little squiggle here or a slant there, or some degree of noise in the baseline, two different people may tend to look at different markets. FX. Major country big stocks. Indexes. Bonds. So forth. Is it proven that these act **exactly** the same w/ respect to chart patterns? Or focus on different time frames. Results hypothetically may vary in different epochs (minutes/hours/days vs days/weeks/years)–I don’t claim to know. Two different people therefore may have different results with a given pattern. Some people might theoretically legitimately therefore report 98% success rate while others, equally legitimately from their different experience or set of knowledge, a 65% rate.

   Also worth noting in considering figures on success rates of signals: If someone studies the matter retrospectively, choosing preexisting data from markets, epochs, and time-frames non-randomly, that person might, unconsciously or unconsciously, pick sets of data where a signal will work particularly well or particularly badly. Designing a prospective study with randomly selected sets of data that will please onlookers is going to be a pain though.

   I write abstractly and hypothetically as someone who does not do much TA or study it much, in order to support the idea that it is plausible that a 98% success rate could be correct in some settings with some practitioners and absolutely implausible in other situations. Contradictory numbers may be correct.

   • Fullgoldcrown says:

     June 25, 2016 - 11:54 pm at 11:54 pm

     Well put Karl

     Thanks for this..we need to understand The % of success rates …a new person to TA reading that a Certain Pattern is 98% reliable could scour the charts looking for an INHS and mortgage the house and Kids and expect to make money !!

     It just does not work that way…

2. Tommy says:

   June 25, 2016 - 9:03 pm at 9:03 pm

   Ok Karl. Thanks