Loading ...Gold – My Unpopular Near-Term View
As indicated over the past couple of weeks, I’m growing less incentivized to share all my charts but I do feel that I need to add this view to restore a little objective balance to the board. It’s just low odds in my view for gold and the miners to power through the kind of resistance and divergences I’m seeing right now, hence my near-term (~2 month) bearish stance. If there is one thing that consistently doesn’t fail me in trading in terms of aligning odds in my favor that is to buy support and sell resistance and then act immediately if your premise is wrong! You will provide yourself with an excellent risk/reward entry while being able to keep a really tight stop because you know right away if you’re wrong.
Here is a chart for your consideration.
Interesting.
MA50 is usually very important in pm bull markets and gets retested many times usually so that might happen here too, agree. Although, your bottom line for the expanding wedge is exactly the extended line for the 3-4 year falling weekly linear wedge, and a a third BT to that one seems a bit far stretched to me when we have had two perfect ones already. Maybe with a Brexit vote to leave but I am not so sure this vote means very much for pm really. And with GOLD just having BT its EMA30 weekly perfectly it seems a bit unlikely to me that it would drop below that again. The divergences look not so fun, but on the other hand, I have seen many large divergences mean nothing during this baby bull.
But, a nice chart, and a possible scenario for sure. Let´s see. Not convinced yet though. Not sure though if you have the charts that might convince/help still far under the bed.
I don’t like making projections of how far something will run up or fall down, but as charts develop I know resistance with poor odds when I see it and I know support with bullish structure and internals when I see it too. I’m more focused on the premise this is bad time to be aggressively long than claiming to know exactly where support will kick back if a correction takes hold.
half cycle low in gold today so if that scenario plays out, its unlikely to start before this cycle has peaked in early July. Then the sector seasonals improve from late July.
Nice Chart Mark
also many individual miners dancing to another tune, although gold price still has some impact, but limited in many cases. almost a divergence going.
actually I’m placing more importance on my GDX charts than my gold charts. It’s more relevant to me and probably most here.
Thanks Mark,
That’s much appreciated.
Thanks for posting this Mark. In Elliott wave terms the pattern could be interpreted as an expanding flat correction where A and B have completed and C down is to come. For those interested in Elliott wave views, you can see examples at
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/elliottwaves/
From a Gann perspective, if gold closes below 1272 then 1222 becomes very important. The C wave target is likely to initially overshoot 1222. If 1222 is subsequently regained and there is a weekly close above that level, then there is a good chance C is complete and new highs will follow. Note that if that scenario plays out I can easily see a $300 rally in gold and 280+ HUI by end of August.
Thanks for sharing your thoughts with us Mark.
Thanks for the chart Mark and on how you see things.
Looks just like a megaphone top to me.
still think there is one last push up…going to be crazy in the next week…