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I am also very bullish on stocks but I think the “We are here” pointer should be 10 years later in 1995
I follow closely the real estate and banking (or credit) cycle which normally runs for 18-22 years with a mid cycle correction.
The WD Gann model (or “echo”) I am using is 30 Nov 1994 = 11 Feb 2016
Welcome Scofield
Some Mindbending Chartwork here
Have you met Sir Norvast ?
🙂
You mean that character from way outback Australia!
Now I have, at least on this site. 🙂
It is very important to place the current set up into the long term cycle.
I am a keen student of the Real Estate & Banking Cycle (on average 18-22 years from low to low with a mid cycle correction)
In the current cycle (2009-2026?) we have seen a longer than normal bull run from the 2009 low (GFC) until the “consolidation” phase that commenced late last year.
I am not expecting a mid cycle correction until 2019-2020 so I would expect the SPX to break out of this consolidation phase soon (it may have already).
The “consolidation” phase may have lasted one full “Investor Cycle” from 24 Aug 2015 to 11 Feb 2016 as it did in the 1994-95 “consolidation” phase (post the Oct 1990 low and then GFC) before breaking out to new highs.
This view is contrary to many others who are expecting a “bear” market similar to 2000-2002
IMO it is far too early in the real estate & banking cycle for this to happen.
This Real Estate Banking Cycle …do you have a graphic / chart link out there in the Outback ?
Thanks for sharing your views. Good to know somehow likes the long-term stuff, too. 🙂