Loading ...Prices MUST Retrace to March Consolidation Zone?
There is nothing in the charts of GDX components to suggest we’ll ever see prices go back that far, let alone the 200MA. These are extremely healthy looking, stair-step, constructive charts. I’m not sure why the “gurus” insist that a pullback like that is guaranteed to happen. This is basic charting, not some esoteric analysis.
AEM is a great example:
Ok…I promise….I’m done for the evening!!!
The sidelined bulls are going to provide the fuel for a continued impulse if we can stabilize here then advance. Just think of the potential for a buyers panic once price exceeds previous highs
Mark, as I see it, its more of a time issue, not a price issue. These corrections/consolidations typically last about 2 months, like the one you have highlighted, over Feb/Mar.
The current one has been running for about one month. So it needs another month to complete, before we can move higher.
Where price is at the end of the 2 months depends on the herd. It could remain in this consolidation, or the herd could take it down to around 38, which is the first Fib, and the 30 week EMA. So that scenario is entirely possible, as is consolidating here.
We cannot discount either scenario. But as time has not completed, its unlikely we get a leg up for another month.
mark, the gold chart i posted earlier.. if one looks at closely.. has an implication.. it has a potential for a downside flush/move through the lower channel line….just something to think about… try and look at the steep down channel from a horizontal perspective… im personnally looking more at silver than gold right now…but not in a trade yet… gold.. i just dont know right now.. the pattern just bothers me…. there was a similar upside head and shoulder pattern which i had warned about.. but that was discarded (but played out).. now we have a downside pattern… and the pattern could still take more time to play out.. (and maybe it never does).
note: not saying the bull is over… but just looking at short term scenarios which might cause panic
we need to see the fear again. the whites of the herds eyes. that is the zone that appeals the most for buying back in, and its not here. still too many bulls in denial.
I disagree. All of my charts say the next leg up is ready to go hard here and now. If next weeks action drifts lower than current prices then it’s a completely failed set up across the board on all my charts and I will be out waiting for a better set up. I know it sounds crazy but I have a NUGT chart that is poised to go from 70 to 240 in about 5 weeks. If the set up falls apart, then MA was right and the whole bullish set up falls apart.
the next move will be dictated by what the crowd (herd) does next week.
whatever they decide to do, we should be looking to do the opposite.
so the question is: what are the crowd thinking and what action are they likely to take as a result of that thinking.
FWIW: for my own PF (and have advised my subs along the same lines) to remain about 70% long (investment positions), with up to 30% cash on the side. So basically set up for both scenarios, as the crowd thinking is an unknown at this point.
nevertheless, as its a BULL market, any surprises should come to the upside. Shorting here is a dicey move therefore.
Do you think HUI can go down to test 150? That would be a major support level test and would be the typical 59% retracement of the rally as highlighted in some historical analysis of gold stock and metal baby bulls.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$hui&p=M&yr=22&mn=0&dy=0&id=p84715185119&a=422997387&listNum=1
For the HUI, the March 2016 consolidation zone would be around 170.
The breakout above that zone was at about 189 and there was prior resistance at 187 from 2015:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24HUI&p=M&st=2014-04-04&en=2016-05-27&id=p02097917506&a=312811263