Goldtent TA Paradise

comparison to 1996-1999

1. Fullgoldcrown says:

   February 15, 2016 - 9:58 pm at 9:58 pm

   That Spike in 99 was the Washington Agreement Spike

   It was a Huge event…but there were Bears just waiting to dump their last stale longs

   That was not just a 3 year bear ending it was a 20 year bear

   Presently we have a 4 year bear

   It has definitely bottomed in all currencies…except the US Dollar

   Different Animal IMHO

2. Carolynsue says:

   February 16, 2016 - 6:35 am at 6:35 am

   Yes what is happening today is a very different animal…in 1996-1999 gold was at the tail end of its 17-18 year SECULAR BEAR Market that started in 1982 and I remember it too…..And in 2001 Gold entered its 17-18 year SECULAR BULL market and gold is still in its secular bull market and is coming out of a nasty CYCLICAL BEAR phase to resume its SECULAR BULL until 2017-2018…so gold is at the doorstep of its last 2 to 3 year Secular BULL market—the place where all the fireworks start..the place where the shoeshine boys are recommending gold stock buys….like the end stage of the Dow/S&P500’s Secular Bull when dot com companies were rising in price by huge leaps and bounds and everyone at cocktail parties was talking about their latest home-run dot com stock purchase…this is where the gold market is headed over the next few years–(the 17/18 year bull-bear cycles from Adam Hamilton’s work:” Long Wave Valuations II” that looks back over a 100 years at the market cycles)

3. Mamare says:

   February 16, 2016 - 8:29 am at 8:29 am

   I agree with the two comments above.
   This is a totally diferent beast.

4. Mamare says:

   February 16, 2016 - 8:47 am at 8:47 am

   I agree with the two comments above.
   This is a totally different beast.

5. DaveintheUK says:

   February 16, 2016 - 12:10 pm at 12:10 pm

   I saw the possible comparison with 1999 price spike. I can’t figure whether it is so similar or not. I liked Winelover’s chart from Rambus that were posted at

   http://goldtadise.com/?p=362974

   There is certainly a possible case for similar action. I could still be bear market ending type action with this impulsive leg coming in before the market was quite ready to accept it and a move down to test the lows as happened in 1999-2001. This was also of course close to coincident with the Nasdaq / general stock market crashes in 2000-2002 and the topping of the US dollar around the end of 2001.

   I would love to think that the cyclical bear in gold is over because it would present opportunities to make a lot of money out of a little. However, we are still in he shadow of a magnificent gold bull market running from 1999-2011. I covered all this stuff in an essay in early 2015 here:

   http://1000gold.blogspot.co.uk/2015/02/essay-on-gold-comparing-current.html

   I tended to think of the more likely scenario:
   “We might then expect some of gold bull market from 2016-2024 and possibly new highs in that time period. This bear market has not been as severe as the one in the [early] 1980s.”

   Personally, I am not thinking of betting the farm on magnificent new highs, unless the wheels come off the financial system, which they might. You never know what tricks these central bankers have up their sleeves and what the public will accept from them, given the potential threat of the imminent disappearance of all their pension fund investments that might ensue.

6. DaveintheUK says:

   February 16, 2016 - 12:16 pm at 12:16 pm

   For pure curiosity, look what happened to the HUI in that 1999-2001 period. I didn’t expect what I saw:

   http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24HUI&p=M&st=1998-01-01&en=2003-01-01&id=p02097917506&a=312811263

   • DaveintheUK says:

     February 16, 2016 - 12:17 pm at 12:17 pm

     HUI and XAU were thoroughly clouted for a bear market phase III type rout into early 2001.

     • DaveintheUK says:

       February 16, 2016 - 12:25 pm at 12:25 pm

       Replying to myself (again), such a downmove could be really beautiful and elegant to wipe out some of these companies that are hanging on by the skin of their teeth, destroy some of the bubble-induced business models and seriously cause supply destruction for a real bull market to follow, not just a good bear market rally.

       • DaveintheUK says:

         February 16, 2016 - 12:40 pm at 12:40 pm

         bob Hoye likes to look at silver:gold ratio and its RSI during impetuous moves.

         I note that silver:gold fell on the gold spike in late 1999, most unusual so maybe that was just a move on the Washington Agreement news relating only to gold. Late 1999, silver:gold daily RSI went down under 20!

         Today it is 45.7 (under 50) and the silver gold ratio isn’t doing much at all. It appears to have been drifting down and has ignored this move.

         It’s difficult to interpret this action. The silver:gold ratio hasn’t been into overbought territory on its RSI since the little rally in gold in mid-2014. Like this early 2016 move up in gold, silver didn’t really outperform on the early 2014 and early 2016 rallies that stand out on the gold chart itself with highs at $1393 and $1308.

         It’s all deflation/disinflationary type behaviour, not really the key for a super bull run in gold?