Goldtent TA Paradise

Gold 16 Year Weekly

1. DaveintheUK says:

   January 18, 2016 - 1:59 pm at 1:59 pm

   Yeah, I also thought $1000 was in line for a test based on this kind of pattern.

   It was interesting that the $1191 high, point 8 on your chart came in line with the parabola that already existed from points 2, 4 and 6. The $1191 high last October was a bit of a disappointment for goldbugs being a failure to break above $1200 and being well short of the previous $1308 high. However this parabolic pattern forecast it to within a few dollars at most. It also scared me a bit because it showed downside acceleration beginning to take its effect most strongly. The early parts of the parabolas were nearly horizontal so you could not spot the acceleration in late 2013/early 2014 for instance. The first sign was probably that we had two lows near $1180 in 2013 and then the $1130 low in 2014. This looked like a breakdown from some kind of triangle pattern at the time but again parabolas fit this action beautifully.

   There were also some smaller but steeper parabolas in the action coming off the $1800 high in late 2012/early 2013 that worried me in terms of the possible future price action.

   Bearish curves on gold chart from last 2+ years plus comparison to Plunger’s 1929-1932 Dow chart.
   http://goldtadise.com/?p=355165

   I have no intention to step on Parabolic Chuck’s area of chart specialization by the way. I am not on the Chartology forum so I just came up with the idea independently late last year with regard to the gold chart. I am just a poor ex-physics grad and accelerations appeal to me. I would prefer accelerations to the upside though!

   One thing that I used to look at was Paul Coghlan of Coghlan Capital who did a lot of webinars on Andrews and other pitchfork analysis of gold, currencies, E-Mini S&P, etc. I was fascinated by this kind of analysis, especially the points of support turning into resistance against his pitchforks and parallel channels. I liked his kind of analysis because it was based on price action alone and not all kinds of derivatives of price action, like momentum indicators. I know those may work excellently for some people but the purity of considering just the price action appealed to me because price matters!

   It seems looking at some charts that similar things happen with respect to parabolic channels, not just against straight lines. How to make best use of it? I have no strong idea! It seems like a topic worthy of involved study though.

2. DaveintheUK says:

   January 18, 2016 - 2:12 pm at 2:12 pm

   It’s still tricky to get this thing just as one would want it. I have drawn a couple of sets of parabolas. The sirst one had $1000-1010 as the next target but that ‘should’ have come at the last low, then sideways to up to $1125 perhaps followed by the next leg down (Phase III)?

   The other one I have just drawn has the last low nearer $1035, so the actual low at $1045 missed it by only $10. That might hint that we go to $1125 now and hit the upper line before the next leg down but the timing of this does not look quite right – it looks too soon right now after the last visit to the upper line last October/ Previously we have had a 6+ month cycle with a kind of half cycle top inbetween.

   I guess predictng the future is difficult!

3. DaveintheUK says:

   January 18, 2016 - 3:00 pm at 3:00 pm

   Looking at some other charts with parabolas I wonder if it is necessary for the price to break down out of the parabolic channel to enter Phase III of a bear market. Looking at the Dow 1929-1932 chart it appears that the final low was within the parabolic channel which just got steeper as it went along. I have just found a similar formation on the gold:platinum ratio chart for the last 38 years – specifically its ear market from 1982 to 2001.

   • DaveintheUK says:

     January 18, 2016 - 3:01 pm at 3:01 pm

     I meant “Au:Pt bear market from 1982-2001”