Loading ...UWTI with back test on 2 hour trend line…
Leaning DWTI
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=UWTI&p=120&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p79955929603&a=407239494&listNum=1
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24WTIC&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p16055966394&listNum=1&a=406385776
WTIC Daily Negative Divergence CONTINUES to grow…
I guess this is clearly a failed breakout now. The divergence on the MACD was more than I’ve ever seen before. The top of the price action had a very low value on the MACD and not even a peak where one could see later as it rolled over that the peak had passed. That bear wedge you pointed out, which included the whole short rally from Friday onward, was really the clue to what was going on. I didn’t see it until I saw your chart and then this morning I started looking for bear wedges and there was another after the last one failed overnight.
I missed all the DWTI action but I see WTI dropping more in the next day or two. I wonder if this sort of peak and valley thing is what it going to be like all summer? I guess that what Caldaro was implying and really, it’s probably just as profitable as the big rally in March/April as long as one stays alert for the reversals. Trend lines I think are the key to filling in where the indicators get hazy. But the volume data also was pointing to a failed breakout. It wasn’t even an average amount of trading.
I compared the WTI and UWTI hourly charts using the standard MACD settings and it’s amazing how much better the MACD works with the UWTI for pointing out tops and bottoms. I would have thought the underlying commodity’s chart would be the best for charting. Perhaps because it doesn’t include the extra hours trading time that the commodity chart does and which contains a lot of noise. Or maybe UWTI’s low stock price acts to smooth out the noise since it’s increments are like 17 times smaller. You can never look at too many charts…