Goldtent TA Paradise

Coffee (JO) may not be as exciting as the Miners but I like to have some diversity and JO is up another 5% today.

The USD is now in its timing band to find a short term Trading Cycle low. As the last Trading cycle was very short at 15 days, this TC could also extend out to the FMOC meeting next week but we are in the timing band.

Close but no Cigar.

Perhaps tomorrow GDX will confirm a new Intermediate Cycle in the Miners.

https://goldtadise.com/?p=372613

Saw this on another Blog and found it interesting. First Chart supposedly shows what happened the last 3 times we had a big NFP miss (I have not verified this).

The chart is from 7 Sentinels who thinks we are in a primary Bear which matches my longer term Cycles Analysis. That said, the SPX is now testing the last Intermediate Cycle high from November 2015. A higher IC High followed by a higher IC Low this summer would move me into the Bullish camp.

My second chart shows the close up price action into last Friday with respect to my Trading/Daily Cycle trend line .

https://twitter.com/sevensentinels

Here is my Gold Intermediate Cycle analysis from last weekend, and it would appear that the IC Low is behind us.

https://goldtadise.com/?p=371580

But to actually confirm a new Intermediate Cycle, Price needs break above my red Intermediate Cycle down trend lines for both Gold and the Miners (GDX). Friday’s move was very bullish but normally IC lines are not often broken on the first attempt, even in a Bull. I could be wrong about this but watch these lines closely.

I know that Mark is very bullish on Crude here and has $62 target. His charts and analysis are some of the best and Crude has made a bullish move here. That said, my cycle analysis shows crude testing/breaking some of my trend lines late this week fairly long into the Trading Cycle #2 count at 42 days.

So perhaps we get a very mild TC low and then we are off to the races again (Trading Cycles in Crude average 35-52 days, TC Low to Low).

I have the USD on day 22 of its shorter term Trading/Daily Cycle and in the heart of its timing band to find a short term TC Low (or DCL as some call it). But what will cause it to bounce? Perhaps Janet in her speech on Monday will be “Yellen” that that a June/July rate increase is still on? For the Fed to have any credibility, however, they must actually raise rates rather than just “jawboning” about it.

I show that the last USD Trading Cycle was very short at only 15 days and we often times see a short cycle followed by a longer one to balance things out. The current USD Trading Cycle was the most bullish we have seen in some time but I show that Price topped out right at the daily 150ema and at one of my down trend lines. I also believe that the bullish move was predicated on the Fed actually raising rates in June.

So, I see two possibilities here:

1) The Fed surprises and actually raises rates in June and the USD takes off again (any bets on this?).

2) The Fed does not raise rates and the USD gets a brief new Trading Cycle bounce, perhaps on some jawboning until the announcement comes out on June 15th at the next FMOC meeting and the USD quickly rolls over again. This scenario would allow the USD to continue its move into a longer term lower Intermediate Cycle low, perhaps in the July/Aug timeframe based on my longer counts.

Note: I believe the USD’s last 5-6 month IC Low was back in Feb but several professional Cycle Newsletters think that it just occurred in May (Gary at SMT and LikesMoney). I think, however, that 8 months would be a very long time for an IC Low and that is only one of the reasons I think that Feb hosted the last IC Low for the USD.

Here is LikesMoney’s weekend freebie and it appears he is thinking that the ICL will now extend further out. I find it is critical to get the Longer Cycles right as they dominate the shorter ones and determine their outcome.

https://likesmoneycycletrading.wordpress.com/2016/06/05/potential-game-changer/

Trend lines break everyday across many timescales. A Cycle trend line, however, is one that breaks WITHIN my Cycle Timing Band where I am expecting a change in Trend.

Lets take a quick look at the USD and GDX on Wed through Friday where I had Gold and the Miners looking for a Trading Cycle Low (and perhaps an Intermediate Cycle Low as well) and was expecting the USD to start its move into it’s next TC Low.

Consider this my Cycles 101 Lesson of the Day. 😉

My chart work shows the USD’s 3 Year Cycle has topped and perhaps the 15 Year as well (less certain on that).

https://goldtadise.com/?p=371937

My reading has also led me to believe that the G20, via the Shanghai Accord, is actively working to “manage the USD lower” over time. The plan, I believe, it to replace the USD as the primary Global Reserve with the IMF’s SDR Bond. The SDR is not a currency and would only be held by Central Banks as their primary reserve. The SDR is currently a “basket” of 4 currencies where the USD has the largest share (USD, EURO, YEN, GBP with China’s Yuan being added to the Mix in Sept/Oct this year).

Here is a link and a graphic that show the potential timeline.

http://philosophyofmetrics.com/timeline-of-global-governance-milestones-freepom/

Are Junior Gold Stocks Following 2008-2009 Recovery?

Here is the key chart (before today)…

Me thinks the Miners intend to continue to outperform the Metal.

Added: a longer term chart. This version shows the inverse with Gold fist in the ratio as Rambus has shown it in prior updates. Seems the parabola has broken here which also shows that the Miners are doing something special here.

All my Cycle Work pointed to a Cycle top in the USD and a Cycle Low in Gold and the Miners, but even I was very surprised be how powerful the move today was in the Mining stocks.

Today is a great example on how in Bull Markets, the surprises are to the upside!

To participate in the Bull, you need to get a “Seat on the Bus” and hold on. 😉

The cycle trend line break in GDX and GDXJ over the past two days was very subtle but then the Miners often lead at Trading/Daily Cycle Turns.

https://goldtadise.com/?p=372272

Signs of a 6 Month Intermediate Cycle low as well from last weekend:

https://goldtadise.com/?p=371580

Posted this over on the RC Forum yesterday.

Picked up some July IBB Puts yesterday as my chart work showed IBB running into resistance.

Took profits on my Sugar (SGG) position this morning at $42 perhaps a bit early but you will never go broke taking profits. 😉

Rotated the proceeds into Coffee (JO).

I still like SGG long term here and will hopefully be able to reload on a pullback. Right now, it looks like Coffee is resuming it’s uptrend.

Sugar SGG on the Move

Did anyone follow me on Sugar (SGG). On the weekly, I show a breakout, backtest and go. 😉

The 30ema on the weekly has also turned up and should now provide support.

https://goldtadise.com/?p=367277

I show that May has hosted the last few Yearly Cycle Lows. Near term, the USD in in my timing band to start moving into a shorter term Trading Cycle Low. Longer term if the 3 year Cycle has topped, as my Cycle analysis indicates, the 30ema, on the weekly, and my red fork channel should continue to provide resistance and guide price lower.

The top red fork line is the downtrend line into the next 3 year low. Price breaking above that line would signal to me that the 3 year cycle low is in. Right now, we are a bit early in my timing band for that to happen but the markets have been very volatile so we should best watch this channel closely.

This is an add on post to Bikoo’s post on NatGas.

https://goldtadise.com/?p=371850

NatGas, like many other commodities is trying to show that the Bear has ended here but is also at a critical point in its 5-6 month Intermediate Cycle (IC) from a time perspective. NatGas is now 12 weeks into its current IC and if the Bear has ended, it should be able to power through overhead resistance here.

Here are a couple of long term weekly charts on Gold vs the DOW that examine volume patterns over a 26 year period.

Here is a direct quote from the book, Technical Analysis of Stock Trends by Edwards and Magee.

“…in a Bull Market, volume increases when prices rise and dwindles as prices decline; in Bear Markets, turnover increases when prices drop and dries up as they recover.”

A close up view of price action over the past several years shows that in 2016 (so far), volume is declining as price declines in a series of Bull Flags and then Volume spikes as price breaks to the upside of the flag. This looks very different to me than what we have seen over the previous 4 years.

I found this link on another Blog this weekend, found it interesting and thought I would share it (it is also in one of my comments in a post below but thought it should be highlighted, so here you go).

Thoughts and feedback are welcome. 😉

Always remember, exceptionally large volume is when smart money movers are in action, either covering old or taking new positions, in the market. It is during these high volume events that one can see the “footprints” left behind by smart money movers….

Smart money sells high and buys low. When smart money is active, volume increases. If smart money were selling gold, the highest volume would occur near the swing highs, and not after a $90 decline. The highest volume is at the low, [so far], so smart money is trying to hide its hand as it buys into the decline. Also, smart money has deep pockets, very deep, so they are not concerned with day-to-day price action even when price moves against them. They know price is going higher because they are the ones behind the move.

Smart money does not like company. It is their purpose to create as many situations as possible to shake people out of the market.

http://www.safehaven.com/article/41561/gold-and-silver-at-significant-support-new-story-developing

My latest article:

Gold Looking Vulnerable While Gold Stocks Correct

Put me in the “middle camp” as I refer to another comment below.

I see a significant correction in terms of price and time but the next leg higher could be just as sudden and significant as the previous one.

Here are a couple of interesting Gold COT analysis reports. The first is from May 22 and shows most small speculators are on the sidelines as almost all Guru’s are bearish. It would seem the participation in this rally has had a rather low participation rate.

Can the “Herd” of small specs and Guru’s on the sidelines be right? They may well be but that would be contrary to what normally happens in markets.

http://prostedywagacje.blogspot.com/2016/05/gold-and-silver-alternative-look-at.html

In contrast, pull up virtually any Miner chart, on the weekly, and take a look at the OBV indicator. This indicator alone shows me that Smart Money is accumulating.

Lastly, here is another COT report from this week that sheds some light on what the Commercials are up to:

* While speculative bulls were dropping their gold contracts, larger commercial traders were buying up gold long contracts at the fastest rate in the report’s history.

* While we have been bearish on gold for the past few weeks, we now think it is a good time for investors to start re-establishing gold positions.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/3978388-weeks-cot-gold-report-move-commercial-traders-unprecedented-reports-history

Gold is now 6 months from its Bear Market low in early Dec 2015 and it sure looks to me like it is seeking out a 5-6 month Intermediate Cycle Low (ICL) here. I had thought that we might have had a rare consolidation ICL in early April but this was early in the timing band and wrong. At 6 months, however, we have broken the IC uptrend line and are now testing the 150ema on the daily (30ema on the weekly) and have also had a 38% Fib retrace.

Gold’s shorter term Trading Cycle has also failed here. This is another requirement for an IC Low and at day 25 we are in the heart of my timing band to find both a TC Low (23-29 days on average) and perhaps and IC Low as well. ICLs can be tricky as we could get one more failed Trading Cycle here into July but that is not my expectation. Much depends on the USD on how the next month or two plays out.

My first chart shows the two current Intermediate Cycle trend lines, the 150em and the Fib levels. My second chart is an updated perspective on my longer term expectations should the 150ema continue to confirm the resumption of the Bull by providing support at IC Lows.

My last two charts are Fractals of Gold’s move out of the 2009 and 2001 bottoms respectively. I prefer the 2009 Fractal as it was 7 years ago and 7 is a VERY important Gann number. 😉

I have Crude on day 36 of Trading Cycle 2 here and wedging to a decision point. Based on Time, I think it should top fairly soon and move into its TC2 Low.

My first chart is a daily with the Trading Cycle counts and trend lines. My second chart is a longer term weekly that shows where it is finding potential resistance. It also shows the last several 5-6 month IC Lows along with where I would expect to see the next one.

Gold is on day 23 and has entered the early part of my Timing Band to find a Trading Cycle Low here. The USD is on day 16 and may have found a Trading Cycle Top today.

Added: A second, longer term Gold chart showing that Gold found support right where you would expect it to and right near the 6 month mark out of the Dec 2015 Bear Market low.

It is possible that if my cycle analysis on the USD is wrong and that it bounces hard out of its expected TC Low next week, that Gold could have one more Trading Cycle that rolls over quickly and we could move into a lower IC Low. In my experience, however, Bull Markets rarely have failed breakouts.

Stocks have made a bullish move out of their recent low but I want to see a few more days of price action to ensure we break through a couple of Red resistance lines on my first chart.

Bottom line, is that Surf does not care much for MegaPhone patterns at all.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/bearish-megaphone-pattern-calls-for-stock-market-selloff-2014-11-12

It sure looks like the SPX has signaled the start of a new Trading/Daily Cycle here with the break out above my Wedge. The market, however, has been giving many head fakes lately and the trading week is young.

I actually want to see a sustained breakout into this Friday before I take a position either way (I do have a small starter position shorting QQQ today with QID based on a channel I see).

Added: QID Fork. Tight stop here but I like the channel and OBV.

I am showing Gold’s Daily Cycle just made a lower low on day 22 at 1228. So this may just be the failed (left translated) Trading or Daily that all the Cycle analysts are looking for?

My Core positions are Spock’s Rocks plus some others which will not be sold (added to a few of these today). 😉

I have a hybrid strategy in play with both Core and Trading positions and you may recall that I took profits on my Trading positions just minutes after last weeks FMOC meeting. Trading Positions include: GDXJ, NEM, AEM, AG, NG, RIC and MUX.

This may not be the TC Low or DCL (as others call it) here but I am using today’s weakness to start buying back my Trading Shares. Remember, in Bull Markets, surprises are typically to the upside.

If 1228 gives way, however, we may test 1206 in the days ahead into a TC Low

TC Lows in Gold 23-29 days on average.